The impact assessment of extreme events: an integrated approach with computable general equilibrium and risk analysis

• Grant number: 23/06525-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: July 31, 2023
• End date: July 30, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Regional and Urban Economics
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Amaral Haddad
• Grantee: Inácio Fernandes de Araújo Junior
• Supervisor: Kieran Patrick Donaghy
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária (FEA). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Cornell University, United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 21/12397-9 - Extreme events impact assessment: an integrated approach with computable general equilibrium and risk analysis, BP.PD

Abstract

The proposed research project seeks to develop models to assess the impact of extreme events. The study will use methodologies based on the integration of intensive models in the use of large databases, which allows assessing the impact of disasters. The modeling framework uses an interregional input-output system to calibrate a computable general equilibrium model. This model will integrate with economic models that quantify higher-order impacts of the extreme events focusing on regional and sectoral infrastructure destruction estimates. In addition, the modeling considers the frequency of event occurrence to incorporate the uncertainties coming from the risk analysis into our spatial computable general equilibrium model. The main contribution of the research will be the development of an integrated approach that incorporates elements of uncertainty into modeling to evaluate the direct and indirect economic impact of unexpected events. The proposed research project will provide the policymakers with simulations to identify economic vulnerabilities at the regional and industrial level and explore alternatives for mitigating losses in extreme events. (AU)