Explaining Electoral Lists Formation in Brazil

• Grant number: 23/04853-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: August 01, 2023
• End date: May 31, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - Political Behavior
• Principal Investigator: George Avelino Filho
• Grantee: João Victor Guedes Neto
• Host Institution: Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (EAESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 19/27645-8 - Electoral strategies and public policies: what is the importance of municipalities?, AP.TEM

Abstract

This project aims to analyze the relationship between electoral lists and electoral campaigns. More specifically, the project inquiries about the determinants of coalition formation and electoral lists in proportional elections. The abolishment of electoral coalitions (EC 97/2017) in proportional elections to legislative seats beginning in 2020 significantly impacted the list formation process. Considering this context, this project is dedicated to the following questions: What is the impact of the abolishment of coalitions on the formation of electoral lists? How does this event impact different municipalities? What are its consequences for party relations and state-level elections?The first outcome observed in the 2020 elections was the increase in the number of candidates for city councils. This could have happened despite the presence of informal coalitions between parties (and their officials) targeted at the continuity of pre-existing local partnerships. For instance, in the 2002 legislative elections in France, the main right-wing political parties coordinated to launch one candidate per district, thus improving their collective electoral performance.It is also possible that smaller parties decide to join bigger parties. Seminal studies suggest that less proportional electoral formulas inhibit the participation of small parties, therefore motivating alliances to surpass electoral quotas/thresholds. We, thus, expect that in smaller cities, especially where coalitions were infrequent and large, small parties will either join bigger parties or avoid direct competition.This initial discussion regarding the determinants of list formation under the new legal framework suggests substantive variation between municipalities. These hypotheses will be further developed and tested throughout this project based on quantitative and qualitative data. As in previous projects, the main data source is the electoral data generated by the TSE and made available via API by CEPESPDATA. Besides these data, the study will benefit from interviews with party leaders at the local level to understand their decision-making process regarding i) the presence of a coalition in mayoral elections, ii) the number of candidates, and iii) who is left outside the electoral lists.