THE TRADE-OFFS OF WHEAT EXPANSION IN THE BRAZILIAN CERRADO: THE CASE OF GOIÁS AND BAHIA

• Grant number: 23/00430-7
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research
• Start date: March 10, 2024
• End date: December 04, 2024
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Agrarian and Natural Resource Economics
• Principal Investigator: Cassiano Bragagnolo
• Grantee: Cassiano Bragagnolo
• Host Investigator: Marcellus Marques Caldas
• Host Institution: Centro de Ciências em Gestão e Tecnologia (CCGT). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). Campus de Sorocaba. Sorocaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Kansas State University, United States

Abstract

WWheat and its derivatives are of fundamental importance in the diet and family budget of Brazilians. Despite the economic importance and the vast areas cultivated with grains in Brazil, more than half of the wheat consumed in the Brazilian national market comes from imports, which makes prices and the domestic market sensitive to exchange rate and international price variations. To increase the supply of domestic wheat and achieve self-sufficiency, an alternative that has been pointed out is the expansion of production to the Cerrado region, which would add to the traditional production of the product located in the South region, to supply domestic demand. This expansion to the Cerrado of Central Brazil, however, must observe the issues of preservation of the Biome and competition with other crops grown in the region in the same period (cotton and corn). Thus, the objective of this research project is to determine the main drivers of the expansion of wheat planting in the states of Bahia and Goiás, two of the states that have the greatest potential for the expansion of the crop in the Cerrado region of Central Brazil, as well as the influence of these factors on the wheat planted area in the region and the dynamics of the crop expansion process. For this purpose, we intend to make a quantitative analysis through econometric model(s) capable of capturing the main determinants of this expansion and a complementary qualitative analysis. The main data sources to be used in the study are surveys published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE (i.e. the Municipal Agricultural Production - PAM/IBGE and the Censuses of Agriculture) and information released by the MapBiomas project. It is expected that the empirical analysis of the results will allow us to understand the process of wheat expansion in the Cerrado region, and especially in the two states, as well as to determine the main challenges to its development. We believe that the results of this project can serve as a basis for the formulation of public policies aimed at achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production and ensuring environmental quality in rural areas, as well as good economic results for the activity.