Role of Natural Regeneration in Environmental Regulation of Rural Properties within the Atlantic Forest Domain in the State of São Paulo

• Grant number: 23/18163-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: March 01, 2024
• End date: February 28, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering - Nature Conservation
• Principal Investigator: Paulo Guilherme Molin
• Grantee: Vinicius Rodrigues Tonetti
• Host Institution: Centro de Ciências da Natureza (CCN). Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCAR). Campus de Lagoa do Sino. Buri , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/11940-0 - Restoration of native vegetation in the Atlantic Forest through the strategic combination of mandatory measures and voluntary commitments - CCD-EMA, AP.CCD

Abstract

Forest cover increase through ecological restoration of terrestrial ecosystems has emerged as the most promising strategy for achieving global goals aimed at mitigating climate change and reinstating diverse ecosystem services provided by forests. Studies indicate that the feasibility of restoring large expanses of land will only be achievable through the adoption of cost-effective methods, such as passive restoration through natural regeneration. The growth of natural forests at the expense of other land uses, a phenomenon known as forest transition, has been observed in various regions of Brazil. Natural regeneration has proven to be a key driver of forest transition as it occurs extensively due to different biophysical and socioeconomic landscape conditions. Understanding the dynamics of forest transition over space and time, through spatially explicit environmental models, is essential for designing strategies to promote major global goals. In this context, this research proposal aims to assess the degree of importance of each spatial determinant and its pattern in the dynamics of forest transition using Bayesian methods of evidence weights. To achieve this, a historical series of land use and land cover maps from the MapBiomas Project (1985 to 2020) will be utilized, focusing on the Atlantic Forest domain in the State of São Paulo. Additionally, the effect of different scenarios on the environmental regulation of rural properties will be evaluated over the projected period (2018 to 2048) through the use of a cellular automaton algorithm.