Causal Investigation of Transmitted Diseases by Mosquitoes in Brazil through Machine Learning in the Context of Climate Change

• Grant number: 24/09656-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: October 01, 2024
• End date: September 30, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Computer Science - Computer Systems
• Principal Investigator: Leopoldo André Dutra Lusquino Filho
• Grantee: Kailani de Assis Tavernezi Rodrigues
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciência e Tecnologia. Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Sorocaba. Sorocaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Diseases such as malaria, leishmaniasis, yellow fever, and dengue pose significant public health challenges in Brazil, particularly due to the country's tropical climate and socioeconomic profile. With ongoing climate change, these conditions are likely to worsen. In this context, it is crucial to investigate how global warming and socioeconomic factors can influence the health situation in Brazil.To manage the complexity and large volume of data from studies on this topic and their non-linear correlations, the use of machine learning techniques is highly recommended. These computational approaches enable the creation of predictive models and the analysis of relationships between input data, helping to understand patterns and trends present in the data.The aim of this project is to investigate the impact of health and environmental variables in Brazilian municipalities. Through data analysis techniques, mathematical modeling, and machine learning algorithms, positive spatial autocorrelations between morbidity and mortality, socioeconomic factors, and greenhouse gas emissions will be identified. This analysis will allow us to predict future morbidity and mortality scenarios based on the relationships between morbidity and mortality rates and various indicators. This information will contribute to the development of effective disease prevention and control strategies in Brazil, providing valuable insights for public health managers, researchers, and other stakeholders in the field.