Unraveling Age-Dependent extinction: A theoretical and empirical exploration of the Clade Replacement model

• Grant number: 24/09339-5
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: November 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Biology
• Principal Investigator: Tiago Bosisio Quental
• Grantee: Carlos Roberto Calderón Del Cid
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/06780-4 - The deep time drivers of biodiversity at the local, regional and global scales, AP.BTA.JP2

Abstract

Research on age-dependent extinction (ADE) has a long tradition, yet there is no consensus on whether younger or older species are more likely to go extinct. Recent efforts to evoke eco-evolutionary aspects of ADE have introduced the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) and the Neutral Theory (NT). The CRT highlights how early-arriving clades limit later arrivals, leading to an overall negative ADE, while ecological shifts produce, under certain conditions, clade replacement, inducing temporary positive ADE. The NT, rooted in the competitive equivalence of species, posits a stochastic species success within a community, offering a null model for ADE. This postdoc proposal investigates the interplay of neutral, biotic, and abiotic processes in shaping ADE. To achieve this, we will implement mechanistic simulation and empirical investigation using fossil record data downloaded from online databases. First, we will describe ADE for several Carnivora clades in North America and Eurasia, exploring the effect of defining the species pool at different phylogenetic and taxonomic levels on the ADE signal. Second, utilizing computer simulations, we will explore CRT and NT models to understand and adjust a theoretical framework for ADE. Due to process-based simulation properties, we will explore how the temporal spam, the species pool size, and the population dynamics of ecologically similar species contribute to the macroevolutionary pattern of ADE. Finally, we will test the theoretical expectations developed on CRT regarding ADE on the fossil record of mammals, with an emphasis on Carnivora. This research will contribute to synthesizing existing knowledge and developing a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing ADE in a macroevolutionary context.