CLIMATE RISK MODELING OF PEANUT CULTIVATION IN THE STATE OF SÃO PAULO UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

• Grant number: 24/16901-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: November 01, 2024
• End date: October 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Ecosystems Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Rouverson Pereira da Silva
• Grantee: Ruan Capacle Mendes
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias (FCAV). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Jaboticabal. Jaboticabal , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10639-5 - Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, AP.CEPID

Abstract

Peanut cultivation, essential for many economies worldwide, faces increasing challenges due to climate change, which primarily impacts productivity through variations in temperature and precipitation. This project aims to assess the climate risk for peanut cultivation in Brazil, specifically in the state of São Paulo, under current conditions and future scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and high emissions. The methodology involves combining historical climate data and future projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs), agronomic data, and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to identify patterns and predict risks to peanut cultivation under different climate scenarios and their potential implications for mechanized harvesting. The study will be conducted in two phases: the collection of secondary data, such as productivity data, historical climate data, and future projections from GCMs, followed by climate modeling of the scenarios. This approach will provide a deeper understanding of future scenarios for peanut cultivation, offering producers management strategies adapted to new climate conditions, thereby promoting more resilient and sustainable peanut agriculture in the state of São Paulo.