Simulation of Productivity and Seasonality of Marandu Grass Production in Current and Future Scenarios in Two Production Hubs in Brazil

• Grant number: 24/19493-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: January 01, 2025
• End date: December 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: João Vitor Leite Valdrighi
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 24/02021-0 - Simulation of future scenarios for pastures in Brazil: strategies for minimizing climate risks, AP.R

Abstract

Due to the increase in population, which can reach 9.7 billion people by 2050, global food production must rise. Particularly for beef, production needs to reach 494 million tons to meet demand. To achieve this goal, the intensification of livestock farming and pasture utilization is essential, but the impact of climate change on the productivity and seasonality of pasture production is unknown. This study aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on forage biomass production and seasonality of production of Marandu palisadegrass [Urochloa brizantha(Stapf) Hochst ex A. Rich. (syn. Brachiaria brizantha Stapf) cv. BRS Marandu], in the two cities with the largest cattle herds in Brazil: São Félix do Xingu-PA and Corumbá-MS. Climate data for these cities will be obtained from INMET databases and the NASA POWER API Client program, while soil data will be sourced from the IBGE Environmental Information Database (BDiA). Marandu palisadegrass will be used in the simulations due to its high representation in Brazilian pastures. Two scenarios of atmospheric CO2 concentration will be addressed: RCP 4.5 (526 ppm) and RCP 8.5 (628 ppm). Meteorological data for the period from 2035 to 2065 will be generated using Global Circulation Models (GCMs), following the assumptions and protocols of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Simulations will be conducted using the CROPGRO - Perennial Forage Model with grazing intervals of 30 and 60 days in the most and least productive seasons, respectively, allowing for the estimation of forage production during both. This will assist livestock farmers in decision-making regarding forage planning to encourage and guide the viability of the activity in the two studied cities.