Development and validation of a dementia prediction model in community-dwelling older adults over a 10-year follow-up period

• Grant number: 24/06594-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: April 01, 2025
• End date: March 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Public Health
• Principal Investigator: Claudia Kimie Suemoto
• Grantee: Ingryd Mayara Nascimento Martins de Pais
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Medicina (FM). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Dementia is a syndrome that causes cognitive decline and affects an individual's functionality. Approximately 55 million people live with dementia worldwide, and it is expected that this number will triple in the next 50 years. Aging is known to be the greatest risk factor for dementia; however, recently, 12 modifiable risk factors have been identified, including low education, systemic arterial hypertension, obesity, hearing loss, traumatic brain injury, excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, depression, physical inactivity, social isolation, diabetes, and air pollution. Considering the increasing cases of dementia, the lack of effective treatments, and the burdens dementia imposes on affected individuals, their families, and the economy, it becomes essential to detect possible cases of dementia in the population early. Currently, there are some dementia prediction models that calculate the probability of developing the syndrome within a timeframe; however, they still have high error rates. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop and validate a 10-year dementia prognostic score for individuals aged 50 and above using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a longitudinal study representative of the United States population. The dementia diagnosis will be made using the Langa-Weir algorithm, and participants will be classified as having dementia or not. The 12 risk factors, age, and gender will be used for developing the prediction model. It is expected that the developed score will be able to predict dementia in 10 years and become a validated score for this purpose.