Using CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to assess the resilience of integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems to climate change

• Grant number: 25/00477-9
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Post-doctor
• Start date: May 01, 2025
• End date: April 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Animal Husbandry - Animal Production
• Principal Investigator: Carlos Guilherme Silveira Pedreira
• Grantee: Alyce Raiana Monteiro dos Santos
• Supervisor: Gerrit Hoogenboom
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: University of Florida, Gainesville (UF), United States
• Associated to the scholarship: 24/00033-0 - Resilience of integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems to climate change in the Amazon Biome, BP.PD

Abstract

Climate change threatens the stability of agriculture, making it essential to develop resilient and sustainable strategies to mitigate its adverse impacts. These strategies must adapt agricultural and livestock production systems to safeguard their capacity to feed a growing global population. Integrated systems, especially those combining crop cultivation, livestock, and trees, are emerging as a promising approach to address climate uncertainties. As predicting long-term climate disturbances in the field is challenging, modeling approaches are ideal for assessing productivity dynamics in response to such disruptions. Our objectives are: 1) to enhance the CROPGRO-PFM model by coupling it with an animal grazing module and optimizing simulation efficiency for long-term assessment of grazing systems; and 2) to investigate the resilience of forage, and crop production under climate change scenarios. Our analysis will focus on the resilience of forage and crop production under changing climatic conditions, aiming to identify strategies for optimizing land use. Field data from a long-term experiment that evaluated four production systems (livestock, livestock-forestry, crop-livestock, and crop-livestock-forestry) will be used for model evaluation. The climate change scenarios will be generated using global circulation models for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, while Cropping System Model of DSSAT model will be used to simulate forage, soybean, and maize production. Resilience will be assessed based on productivity and resistance to climate stress. By evaluating the model and simulating future scenarios, this research will provide actionable recommendations to guide public policies and promote sustainable agricultural practices.