The War in Ukraine and Its Impacts on the Energy Strategies of Russia and the European Union

• Grant number: 24/11115-8
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• Start date: April 01, 2025
• End date: March 31, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Humanities - Political Science - International Politics
• Principal Investigator: Rafael Antonio Duarte Villa
• Grantee: José Késsio Floro Lemos
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This project aims to analyse the evolution of the energy strategies of Russia and the European Union (EU) in response to the conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2022, with a focus on Russia's strategic repositioning in Eurasia. The conflict in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst, triggering significant changes in the international landscape and notably impacting the energy sector, altering global trade and energy-related political dynamics. Historically, Russia has been a key supplier of crude oil, gas, and solid fuels to the EU. However, the war that began in 2022 has intensified existing tensions, leading to a substantial reduction in energy trade between the parties. The EU now faces the complex challenge of replacing approximately 40% of its natural gas imports from Russia, while continuing to meet its environmental commitments. Conversely, Europe's pursuit of diversifying its energy sources is prompting Russia to seek new markets, particularly in Asia. This pivot to Asia represents a significant challenge for Moscow, due to the need to develop new, complex, and costly infrastructures, in addition to dealing with the risks of potential new dependencies in relation to the Asian market. This project aims to thoroughly analyse the evolution of Russia and the EU's energy policies, assessing the impact of these measures on the global energy market and international geopolitics. The study will investigate the actors, objectives, and strategies present in this dynamic. To achieve these objectives, an integrated methodology combining case study and process-tracing will be adopted. This approach will allow for a detailed and enlightening analysis of the events, policies, and decisions, elucidating the causal chains and underlying mechanisms of the observed changes, and providing a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between international energy trade and the redistribution of international power.