Predictive models to changes in the distribution of mangrove forests on the coast of Brazil due to climate change

• Grant number: 24/06759-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: January 31, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Theoretical Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Flávia Maria Darcie Marquitti
• Grantee: Miguel Piovesana Pereira Romeiro
• Host Institution: Instituto de Biociências (IB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Predicting how climate change will alter biodiversity is one of the pressing challenges in ecology. Mangrove forests are particularly at risk, as their distribution is limited to tropical and subtropical coastal regions. While they tolerate a high variation in environmental conditions, their latitudinal restriction can mainly be explained by the combination of temperature and aridity. Although there is a general trend of poleward expansion of mangrove forests, this process depends on the climatic suitability of estuaries, the dispersal capacity of mangroves (through propagules), and interactions among individuals at the recruitment site. We will use different modeling approaches to investigate the relative roles of each process and reduce uncertainties in our predictions, enabling advances in understanding mangrove vulnerability. We have observed at least one suitable estuary by 2050, as well as regions of potential mangrove loss. This expansion and loss may not only drive changes in distribution of mangroves, but also the evolutionary potential of new and current mangrove populations. We highlight the need to investigate how ecological processes at different scales and climatic conditions influence the responses of Brazilian mangroves to climate change.