Mathematical modeling of the infection dynamics of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in rodents: epidemiological implications

• Grant number: 25/00370-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: February 28, 2027
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Parasitology - Protozoology of Parasites
• Principal Investigator: Rodrigo Malavazi Corder
• Grantee: Catarina Maria Stanischesk Molnar
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas (ICB). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Cutaneous leishmaniasis, caused by Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, is the predominant form of the disease found throughout tropical and subtropical America, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. A primary challenge for controlling the disease is the parasites broad range of reservoir hosts - particularly wild rodents. To elucidate the epidemiology of this particular form of cutaneous leishmaniasis it is essential to understand the transmission dynamics among its reservoirs. This study aims to model the transmission dynamics of L. (V.) braziliensis in rodent reservoirs within two endemic communities in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Compartmental models, specifically SEI (Susceptible - Exposed - Infected) and SEIR (Susceptible - Exposed - Infected - Recovered), will be developed and calibrated using field-collected data to describe the transmission dynamics within rodent populations. The models will incorporate parameters such as infection rates, latency periods, and mortality, enabling the examination of the role of seasonality in disease transmission and the connectivity between ecotopes (domestic, peri-domestic, and forest) inhabited by different rodent species. Epidemiological scenario simulations will be conducted to identify the factors most influential in disease transmission. Therefore, this study seeks to elucidate the eco-epidemiological mechanisms driving the transmission of L. (V.) braziliensis and their contribution to the development of targeted public health strategies aimed at mitigating the impact of this much neglected tropical disease.