Predicting ecological outcomes of Atlantic Forest restoration

• Grant number: 25/06714-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: June 01, 2025
• End date: May 31, 2029
• Field of knowledge: Biological Sciences - Ecology - Applied Ecology
• Principal Investigator: Pedro Henrique Santin Brancalion
• Grantee: Amanda Marsh Cooke
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• Associated research grant: 21/10573-4 - Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON), AP.CEPID

Abstract

Deforestation has caused the loss of roughly 74% of the original area of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. This region is one of 25 global biodiversity hotspots and provides ecosystem services such as water availability and quality to 60% of Brazil's population, indicating a critical need to prevent further forest loss and restore forests to prevent species extinction, mitigate climate change, and benefit people through livelihoods and other ecosystem services. However, critical gaps in knowledge confront restoration practitioners who must plan projects for a wide range of stakeholder goals, including legal compliance, carbon stocking, and biodiversity, and decide among a suite of methods that depend on local and landscape factors and range in complexity and cost. While the storage of carbon in restored forests and the resulting generation of carbon credits have garnered significant attention in recent years, researchers have paid less attention to ecological outcomes, including the potential of restored forests in generating biodiversity credits, a relatively new and potentially useful financial mechanism to fund forest restoration projects. To improve the prioritization of limited resources, more research is needed to better understand where restoration is most likely to occur, and the quality and quantity of ecological outcomes practitioners can expect. The value of ecological outcomes may be higher in areas with high risk of species extinction. Using a large dataset from across the Atlantic Forest, we plan to study the drivers and likelihood of restoration outcome quantity and quality under a range of local and landscape conditions and restoration methods. The results of this project will increase our understanding of new forests of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to guide restoration decisions, reduce costs, and improve outcomes. (AU)