Education Quality and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis in Brazilian Municipalities

• Grant number: 25/10180-3
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: September 01, 2025
• End date: June 30, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Quantitative Methods Applied to Economics
• Principal Investigator: Alexandre Gori Maia
• Grantee: João Francisco Vilchez Carone
• Host Institution: Instituto de Economia (IE). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Company: Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação (FEEC)
• Associated research grant: 20/09838-0 - BI0S - Brazilian Institute of Data Science, AP.PCPE

Abstract

This study analyzes the role of education quality as a determinant of the aggregate economic growth of Brazilian municipalities. The research has two main objectives. The first is to update the debate in the established literature in the field of the economics of education, with theoretical references and empirical evidence on the role of human capital. The second is to present recent evidence for the Brazilian case based on empirical models using panel data with municipal-level information from 2005 to 2021. The analysis will primarily rely on establishing spatial fixed effects models to assess the evolution of the per capita product growth rate of municipalities as a function of their educational quality indicators (average performance in SAEB and ENEM assessments). A relevant empirical aspect of this research is identifying the heterogeneous effects of educational quality on the economic development of more and less developed localities. Finally, through a spatial analysis, we will incorporate spillover effects, investigating, for instance, to what extent the educational quality of one municipality also influences the economic dynamics of neighboring municipalities. It is worth noting that this research proposal is part of the Brazilian Institute of Data Science (BI0S), a thematic project funded by FAPESP (grant number 20/09838-0), in which the advisor participates as one of the principal investigators. (AU)