Untapped Potential: Math Awards and the Development of Talented Students from Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Backgrounds in Brazil

• Grant number: 25/10727-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• Start date: December 01, 2025
• End date: April 30, 2028
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - Economics of Human Resources
• Principal Investigator: Fernanda Gonçalves de La Fuente Estevan
• Grantee: João Carlos Saran
• Host Institution: Escola de Economia de São Paulo (EESP). Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This project aims to: 1) causally investigate the effect of Brazilian Public School Mathematics Olympiad (OBMEP) awards on recipients' academic trajectories, examining, among other variables, higher education completion rates, enrollment in STEM-related degrees and attainment of master's or doctoral degrees; 2) causally investigate OBMEP award effects on recipients' professional trajectories, focusing on earnings, employment sector (public or private), job stability, placement in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) occupations and probability of becoming an entrepreneur; 3) characterize professional trajectories of individuals in STEM-related occupations in Brazil and model OBMEP's influence on these pathways. To achieve these objectives, we will construct a comprehensive database tracking the complete educational trajectory of OBMEP participants and their classmates from basic education through post-graduate studies. This dataset will be compiled through the Protected Data Access Service (SEDAP), which enables the integration of second-phase OBMEP participant records with data from Basic and Higher Education School Censuses, SISU, RAIS, National Registry of Legal Entities (CNPJ) and CAPES' repository of theses and dissertations. Our methodological approach combines regression discontinuity designs to evaluate the causal impact of awards on recipients' trajectories with descriptive analyses and an educational choice model to characterize STEM career trajectories and assess OBMEP's influence. For this latter component, we will utilize data from PNADC's supplementary education questionnaires. Therefore, this study aims to test the hypothesis that public recognition of talent enabled by OBMEP can influence academic outcomes and long-term career decisions, with such effects being amplified when this recognition is directed toward socioeconomically disadvantaged segments. In this sense, it may contribute to characterizing the competition's potential as a public policy capable of mitigating gender and racial inequalities in STEM.