EVOLUTION OF CONTEMPORARY URBAN FABRICS: A MORPHOLOGICAL AND BIOCLIMATIC APPROACH BASED ON MILLENNIUM SCENARIOS

• Grant number: 25/22066-0
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• Start date: January 12, 2026
• End date: July 11, 2026
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Architecture and Town Planning - Fundamentals of Architecture and Urbanism
• Principal Investigator: Evandro Ziggiatti Monteiro
• Grantee: Juliana Rodrigues Machado
• Supervisor: Vitor Manuel Araujo de Oliveira
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo (FEC). Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Campinas , SP, Brazil
• Institution abroad: Universidade do Porto (UP), Portugal
• Associated to the scholarship: 24/02948-6 - Analysis of interactions between urban form and bioclimatic performance: cases of new territories of knowledge in T3 zones of the transect, BP.DR

Abstract

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is a UN report that assesses the impacts of human actions on ecosystems and proposes a conceptual model consisting of four future scenarios to guide public policy. The document is considered a milestone for the sustainability of the planet's ecosystems. Among the main warnings in the report are biodiversity loss, the reduction of ecosystem services, and the negative effects of rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries. Although the "proactive" and "reactive" scenarios have generated intense debate among ecologists, their impact on urban morphology has been limited. This research seeks to address this gap, understanding that the analysis of scenarios using morphological methods can provide a valuable perspective for understanding the alternatives for the future evolution of urban fabrics. From a broader perspective, it is hoped that the proposed approach will shed light on possibilities for sustainability and resilience for the future of cities. The objective of the thesis is to explore, from a morphological perspective, the design of the urban fabric associated with each scenario, using the mitigation of urban heat islands as a parameter. The methodology comprises a systematic review of the literature, morphological analysis of the urban fabric, and modeling of a peri-urban area of Campinas-SP, intended for the International Hub for Sustainable Development (HIDS), for evaluation based on the scenarios. This investigation is part of the research developed by the Center for Studies on Urbanization for Knowledge and Innovation (CEUCI) and seeks to contribute to the formulation of proposals aligned with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.