AN ESTIMATION PROPOSAL OF EXPORT FUNCTIONS FOR BRAZIL-CHINA COMMERCE: AN ANALYSIS FOR COMMODITIES AND PROCESSED PRODUCTS

• Grant number: 07/07767-4
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: June 01, 2008
• End date: November 30, 2009
• Field of knowledge: Applied Social Sciences - Economics - International Economy
• Principal Investigator: Sílvia Helena Galvão de Miranda
• Grantee: Caio Marcos Mortatti
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the bilateral trade between Brazil and China, estimating the export functions and desagregating for commodities and processed products. The justification is related to the importance of identifying the determinants of Brazilian exports to China. The specification of the model will be based on the one proposed by Zini Jr. (1988), assuming products not perfectly substitutes. Therefore, this will allow to estimate finite price-elasticities for both exports supply and demand. Thus, considering the relevance of the Chinese commerce with Brazil in the trade balance, it is intended to assess the results incentive policies and/or changes in the trade determinants variables ex-ante, allowing prospective analysis on the international relations between Brazil and China. Although there is little academic work in Brazil, applying modeling methods to evaluate the international trade with the Asian partners. In this sense, this work aims to be a contribution, generating also data that can be employed in more sophisticated modeling, as the general equilibrium models in the future.