Retorno e risco em sistemas de sucessao de soja no estado de sao paulo.

• Grant number: 07/01055-2
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
• Start date: July 01, 2007
• End date: June 30, 2008
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy
• Principal Investigator: Maura Seiko Tsutsui Esperancini
• Grantee: Gabriela Martins Yasuda
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas (FCA). Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Campus de Botucatu. Botucatu , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Farmers from Sao Paulo state traditionally use monoculture due economic and management reasons and for this reason 98% of cultivated area is under monoculture. In cases that use succession crops two important maters affect farmers decisions. Installation costs of additional crop vis-à-vis the additional income and the risk of the production since many succession systems are grown in winter time and may have negative effect on crop yield due less favorable climate conditions. The aim of this work is to evaluate economic return and risk to install combination of annual crops especially in succession systems (summer crops followed by winter crops) common at Sao Paulo state. Six succession systems will be analyzed: succession of summer soybeans in conventional system followed by winter corn in minimum tillage system Orlandias EDR; succession of summer soybeans in no till system followed by winter corn in minimum tillage system - Assiss EDR; succession of irrigated winter beans and irrigates summer corn both in no till system - Sao Joao da Boa Vistas EDR; succession of summer soybeans in conventional system followed by winter grain sorghum in minimum tillage system - Orlandias EDR; succession of summer cotton in conventional system followed by winter irrigated beans in conventional system - Sao Joao da Boa Vistas EDR and succession of irrigated winter potato in conventional system and irrigate summer corn - Sao Joao da Boa Vistas EDR. The Monte Carlo method or the stochastic simulation will be used because works with random elements that refers to risk variations of the certain variables. Three variables will be used: price, yield and productions costs. Both prices product and input will be deflationed by the IGPM based on July 2007. Although it is not possible to use the results shown to preview future economic results the research can give support either for farmers decision make and also to formulate public politics to reduce agriculture risk.