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| Author(s): |
Carlândia Brito Santos Fernandes
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Doctoral Thesis |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2015-06-12 |
| Examining board members: |
Fabiana Fontes Rocha;
Marcelo Luiz Curado;
Vera Lucia Fava;
Gilberto Tadeu Lima
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| Advisor: | Fabiana Fontes Rocha |
| Abstract | |
This thesis focuses on fiscal policy in the long run and is specifically divided into four essays. In order to give foundation for the second essay the aim of the first essay is to understand the role of fiscal policy in historical trajectory, from 1970 to recent years, and to know the factors that influence it. Thus, the essays I and II are directly linked and constitute the first part of this study. Using the methodology of unobservable components and the Johansen\'s (1988) cointegration analysis, the aim of the II essay is to investigate the pattern of the Brazilian discretionary fiscal policy in relation to terms of trade and the level of economic activity, between 1991 and 2014. Setting forth a theoretical model based on Lewis (1954) and by assuming a dual economy, the third essay analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on economic development. Applying GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) techniques the fourth essay investigates to groups of countries two possible nonlinearities: between fiscal policy and economic growth and between the pattern of fiscal policy and terms of trade. The main results are: there is a long-run relationship between the variables structural fiscal balance, GDP and the terms of trade; Brazil\'s fiscal policy is procyclical on the level of economic activity but countercyclical in relation to the terms of trade; there is a fiscal-development trap; the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is nonlinear; there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public investment and growth for low-income countries (LIC), and between the standard of fiscal policy and the terms of trade for high-income countries (HIC). Finally, the results on the pattern of fiscal policy converge to the consensus that developing countries adopt procyclical policies and developed adopt countercyclical fiscal policy. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 12/04600-0 - The pattern of Brazilian fiscal policy and the role of fiscal responsibility law |
| Grantee: | Carlândia Brito Santos Fernandes |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate |