Modeling control measures in networks of animal movements

Author(s)

Raul Ossada

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: São Paulo.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia (FMVZ/SBD)
• Defense date: 2015-08-28

Examining board members

Marcos Amaku; Ricardo Augusto Dias; José Henrique de Hildebrand e Grisi Filho; Paulo Roberto Guimaraes Junior; Rísia Lopes Negreiros

• Advisor: Marcos Amaku

Abstract

The animals’ movements in a farms network and the spread of some animal diseases are intrinsically related. Therefore, comprehending the dynamics of the spreading of infectious diseases in these networks is an important tool in controlling these diseases. Using the information about the bovine movements from the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, in 2007, we rebuilt the network of animal movements and the geographic proximity network between the premises of this state, in addition to hypothetical networks following the network models Molloy-Reed, Kalisky, Method A and Method B, where we simulated, using different configurations of the model SLIRS, the spread of diseases with hypothetical parameters e real ones (brucellosis and foot and mouth disease). Moreover, we simulated the control of these diseases spreading, considering the control by immunization and by restriction, with and without the rearrangement of the movements after the restriction, selecting the premises to be protected randomly, based on the degree of animal’s movements and using the concept of the friendship paradox. Among the results, stands out that although the pattern of the prevalence curves in the hypothetical networks were similar to the ones in the real network, the observed values were higher in the hypothetical networks, indicating that using them in the planning of policies to control diseases in place of the real network might lead to a greater expense of resources than it would be necessary. Furthermore, in the control of the diseases both with hypothetical parameters as well as with real parameters, in the simulations using only the animal’s movements network, it was observed a more effective reduction of the prevalence when selecting the premises with the highest total degree than the random selection, while in the simulations that considered the network of geographic proximity of the premises, the reduction in the prevalence of the strategies that selected specific premises were similar to the random selection. On the effect of rearranging the movements, it was observed that it may facilitate the spread of diseases in the network even in situations where some control strategy is used. We hope that the results of the mathematical simulations may contribute to the discussion of the relative impact of the mentioned control strategies and that in the future they may assist in the activities of agencies responsible for disease surveillance and in the development of policies to prevent and control diseases in animals. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 11/10029-0 - Modeling control measures in networks of animal movements
• Grantee: Raul Ossada
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate