Impact evaluation of Proagro Mais: a case study

Author(s)

Carlos Andres Oñate Paredes

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Piracicaba.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC)
• Defense date: 2016-03-18

Examining board members

Humberto Francisco Silva Spolador; Alexandre Nunes de Almeida; Cassiano Bragagnolo

• Advisor: Vitor Augusto Ozaki

Abstract

This research evaluates the impact of the \"Farm Activity Guarantee Program for Smallholders\" or Proagro Mais. The relevance of this research relies on the considerable size of the program within the context of agricultural risk management policies in Brazil. This research is also the first of its kind in the scientific literature in Brazil. It was used a sample of small-scale corn producers from the State of Paraná. It was assumed 2003 as the baseline since it is the year prior to the launch of Proagro Mais, and 2005 as the endline. The database used in this study was provided by the Federal Accounting Court of Brazil (TCU). The relevant variables include crop and growers characteristics such as area financed, complementary agricultural activities, education, and expected yield. It was also added meteorological and regional variables from other public sources to control farm location. The main objective of the research is to evaluate the impact of Proagro Mais on the amount of credit per hectare granted to the beneficiaries of the Program. The methodology includes Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Difference-in-Difference (DID), and two conditional DID along PSM estimators, using longitudinal and repeated cross-sections data. The econometric estimates show that the Average Treatment Effect on the Tread (ATET) was negative. This suggests that after the yield loss period, the control group got a higher average amount of credit per hectare than Proagro Mais beneficiaries. Thus, the question that arises is whether there may be other agricultural risk management mechanisms more suited for smallholders than Proagro Mais, or whether the evaluated program could not achieve its main goal because it does not cover all risks faced by its beneficiaries. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 14/03713-0 - Impact evaluation of PROAGRO and SEAF on farmers from Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul States
• Grantee: Carlos Andres Onate Paredes
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate