Full text
| |
| Author(s): |
Adriano dos Reis Miranda Laureno Oliveira
Total Authors: 1
|
| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2018-08-31 |
| Examining board members: |
Gilberto Tadeu Lima;
Laura Barbosa de Carvalho;
Esther Dweck;
Marcelo de Carvalho Pereira
|
| Advisor: | Gilberto Tadeu Lima |
| Abstract | |
The main parcial equilibrium and DSGE models which study investment dynamics disregard core issues about this subject and have problems to explain results coming from the empirical literature. We argue that studying investment dynamics in a complex adaptive system by using Agent-Based Models is a promising alternative. In this work we motivate, describe, justify methodologically and build an ABM in line with important models from the literature and we incorporate to firms\' demand expectations an optimism revision rule and an interaction mechanism in their decisions to produce and invest. Thereby, we replicate many stylized facts from the empirical literature and we were able to test macroeconomic effects from theoretical hypothesis related to confidence-driven contagion phenomena, political motivation and reflexivity, present in firms\' decisions. Our results question the effectiveness of mechanisms analogous to the investment strikes, as a way for businessmen to control government policies, but confirm that endogenize possible political motivations, yet subjective, in the level of confidence of the firms has substantial macroeconomic effects. Furthermore, our experiments suggest that i) both productivity and real wages are necessary conditions for growth, ii) temporary confidence shocks have long-term effect, iii ) for localized shocks of pessimism, to contagion the economy, they need to be persistent, iv) consider the concept of reflexivity has important macroeconomic consequences. We find no evidence that government fiscal contractions can be expansionist, through their effects on confidence levels. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 16/17987-0 - Complexity applied to the study of investment dynamics: an agent based model inspired by Kalecki |
| Grantee: | Adriano dos Reis Miranda Laureno Oliveira |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |