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| Author(s): |
Mauro Virgino de Sena e Silva
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | Piracicaba. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC) |
| Defense date: | 2005-08-26 |
| Advisor: | Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi |
| Abstract | |
The aim of the present research is to estimate equations of exports which explain the Brazilian sugar international trade, with the purpose of identifying the main determinant of the exporting performance of this commodity. These analyses are carried out from quarter data for the period between the fourth quarter of 1995 and the forth quarter of 2003. The applied methodology is the analysis of vectorial Auto-regressions, being considered the integration and co-integration properties of the used series. Dickey-Fuller unity root tests are used to determine the series integration order, and Johansen procedure to test co-integration and to estimate error correction term. Specific models differed by sugar type are adjusted: raw and refined sugar. Due to the fact that the domestic production of raw sugar is directed exclusively to external markets and Russia is the main destination for this product, a reduced model for raw sugar exports based on supply and demand curves for exports was adjusted, including Russian income as the dislocating variable of the external demand for this product. In the same way, due to de fact that the Arabian and African countries are the main purchaser of the Brazilian refined sugar, their income was included in the function of demand for exports. Regarding the refined sugar, the exports model was adjusted in a way to consider the internal conditions, because this product is also consumed in the internal market. The coefficient matrix|signals of contemporary relations in the model for the raw sugar presented consistent signals The decomposition result of the forecast error variance shows that the external market variable, Russian income and exchange rate, are the ones which explains most of the variations in the exported quantum of raw sugar. The matrix coefficient signals of contemporary relations of the external sales model for the refined sugar are also shown according to what was expected, except for the Brazilian income variable. This result must be related to the proxy used, the Brazilian GDP, which may be receiving strong influences from the exports on the growth of the Brazilian economy in the last years. As expected, the internal market variables, Brazilian income and internal price, explain most of the variations in the exported quantum of refined sugar. In the spite of the reduced number of available observations to the proposed model adjustment, considered as limitation to this study, the main goal, to identify the impacts of important variables on the Brazilian sugar exporting performance, was reached (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 03/05079-2 - Export equations for Brazilian sugar: a Vector Auto-Regression model |
| Grantee: | Mauro Virgino de Sena e Silva |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |