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| Author(s): |
Diogo Enrrico Ortelan Miranda
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | Campinas, SP. |
| Institution: | Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica |
| Defense date: | 2018-07-31 |
| Examining board members: |
Denis José Schiozer;
André Ricardo Fioravanti;
Marcio Augusto Sampaio Pinto
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| Advisor: | Denis José Schiozer; Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Gaspar |
| Abstract | |
The definition of the production strategy is an important step in the development and exploitation of oil fields. The process is complex because it depends on different uncertainties, mainly of economic and geological types. The use of a robustness price, a low price, representative of a pessimistic scenario, is a practice commonly used in the industry to mitigate risk. Companies select the robustness price to verify the project viability. They expect that using the robustness price to select the oil production strategy generates more conservative investments and are less likely to negative returns. However, the use of the robustness price may lead to suboptimal results with limited strategies for optimistic cases. The objective is to evaluate the influence of the robustness price on the definition of the production strategy, considering three economic and geological scenarios. We analyze the main impacts, gains and losses, by adopting a strategy optimized for a conservative scenario. The simulation models representative of some scenarios were optimized for the number and location of wells, and the capacity of the platform. The objective function to be maximized was net present value for all probabilistic scenarios generated by derivation tree. The results showed that, by the definition of risk adopted in this study (semi-standard deviation of the analyzed models), using the robustness price may not guarantee a low-risk strategy and lead to an undersized production strategy, reducing the expected monetary value of the strategy. Furthermore, the results indicate the importance of using with caution the robustness price in the process of selection of production strategy and in the mitigation of the risk inherent in the development of oil fields (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 08/02271-3 - Selection of strategy of production under uncertainties |
| Grantee: | Diogo Enrrico Ortelan Miranda |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |