Does Religion Distract the Poor? Pentecostalism and Redistributive Vote in Brazil

Author(s)

Victor Augusto Araújo Silva

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: São Paulo.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas (FFLCH/SBD)
• Defense date: 2019-12-19

Examining board members

Marta Teresa da Silva Arretche; Fernando de Magalhaes Papaterra Limongi; Jairo César Marconi Nicolau; Bruno Pinheiro Wanderley Reis

• Advisor: Marta Teresa da Silva Arretche

Abstract

According to the leading political economy models, individuals below the median income should vote for redistributive policies in contexts of high inequality. However, there is only weak evidence that the median voter theorem can explain individual electoral behavior. Why do the poor do not vote in candidates who support redistribution? In this study, I address this question considering the effect of religion on the electoral behavior of poor voters. Using Brazil as a case, I argue that Pentecostal leaders act as organizational brokers to mediate the relationship between politicians and low-income voters. These evangelical leaders undermine the political chances of left-wing candidates using moral conservative arguments to mobilize their followers in Pentecostal churches. The evidence from Brazilian presidential elections (2002-2018) shows a better performance of leftists candidates among Catholics and traditional evangelical voters. Conversely, Pentecostal poor voters tend to punish these candidates in the ballots. I also exploit the effect of the religious transition - the rise of Pentecostal evangelicals to the detriment of Catholic Christians - on the electoral support for the Workers Party (PT), the biggest left-wing party in the Brazilian electoral system which won the presidential elections from 2002 to 2014. The evidence suggests a good electoral performance of PT\'s candidates in the municipalities where the majority of the population is Catholic, while the electoral support for PT in areas with a high prevalence of Pentecostal Christians tends to be substantively (and statistically) smaller. These results suggest that the religious transition also has important electoral consequences often neglected by literature. As a second step, I leverage on both macro and micro-data to investigate how Pentecostalism affects poor voters\' response to income redistribution policies. I show that the increase in welfare induced by the Bolsa Família (PBF), a conditional cash transfer program, produced electoral returns for the PT\'s candidates only among non-Pentecostal beneficiaries and in areas with a high concentration of Catholics voters. These results are robust and hold across different model specifications and they are still consistent even when confronted with alternative explanatory mechanisms. Overall, the evidence presented in this study helps to explain why low-income voters may not vote for income redistribution in highly unequal contexts. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 16/23215-0 - Fiscal federalism and territorial inequality in Brazil
• Grantee: Victor Augusto Araújo Silva
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate