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| Author(s): |
Kalyl Gomes Calixto
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | São Carlos. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2020-03-13 |
| Examining board members: |
Edson Cezar Wendland;
Walter Collischonn;
José Rodolfo Scarati Martins
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| Advisor: | Edson Cezar Wendland |
| Abstract | |
The development and application of hydrological models with strong predictive power are one of the strategies to guide policy-making processes related to the control and management of water resources and land use towards sustainability. A changing world, with climate uncertainties and increasing population, requires reliable water availability estimates under a variety of scenarios. In these estimates, the knowledge of the dependencies between water fluxes and storages may be needed to keep the physical and causal consistencies between processes. Although short and long-term dependencies are often identified, a few studies make proper use of these characteristics for model evaluation. The aim of this study is to develop a lumped conceptual hydrological model to represent the water availability of a monitored catchment located in an outcrop zone of the Guarani Aquifer System. As input data, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (FAO-56) were estimated from ground-based data and spatial interpolation (IDW). The streamflow was estimated from water level data and dynamic rating curves to consider changes in the flow conditions. Parametric Granger causality test and time-delayed mutual information were evaluated and applied to characterize dependencies between hydrological variables in the time domain. The hydrological conceptual model was developed taking previous conceptions as the bottom line and was parameterized accordingly to the dominant flows in the study area. Vegetation indices obtained by remote sensing were used as input data to estimate actual evapotranspiration. Runge-Kutta integration method with an adaptive time step was used to solve the system of ordinary differential equations of the model, which took the continuous state-space representation. The model calibration was conducted in a multi-objective approach (NSGA-II algorithm was used). The objectives were to reproduce the streamflow dynamics at the outlets and the storage in the saturated zone, evaluated from the observed groundwater levels. The results obtained were satisfactory and comparable with previous simulation studies, which used more complex or consolidated models. In addition, the model adequately reproduced the dependencies between hydrological variables in the time domain. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 18/19222-7 - Causality and persistence in the water availability dynamics |
| Grantee: | Kalyl Gomes Calixto |
| Support Opportunities: | Scholarships in Brazil - Master |