Desigualdade de renda, atividade econômica e política econômica em um modelo macroeconômico baseado em agentes

Author(s)

Lilian Nogueira Rolim

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Campinas, SP.
• Institution: Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP). Instituto de Economia
• Defense date: 2022-09-08

Examining board members

Carolina Troncoso Baltar; Esther Dweck; Laura Barbosa de Carvalho; Rosangela Ballini

• Advisor: Gilberto Tadeu Lima; Carolina Troncoso Baltar

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the macroeconomic dimensions of income inequality by exploring the distributive implications of economic factors and the feedback effects between income distribution and macroeconomic variables, such as output growth and inflation rates. The main research question concerns the conditions under which inclusive economic growth can be achieved. To investigate this research question, each chapter deals with a more specific and derived research question, thus exploring the different layers that form the complex and two-way relationship between income distribution and economic activity. Chapter 1 deals with the interplay between workers' bargaining power and productivity growth and explores its implications for income distribution and output growth. In order to do so, a novel agent-based model with Kaleckian features is set forth. The main novelties of the model are a new and more inclusive wage bargaining process between firms and workers capturing the conflict over nominal wages, a new strategic component to firms' mark-up rates, and a three-class social structure. The model is employed to analyze the interaction between productivity growth, which potentially benefits firms by reducing unit costs, and workers' bargaining power, which potentially benefits workers by affecting nominal wages. The chapter shows that the relationship between income distribution and output growth largely depends on the relative strength of the key parameters determining the dynamics of these variables and identifies a policy dilemma when there is a trade-off between stimulating economic activity and productivity growth and promoting more equality in the income distribution, which can, nonetheless, be attenuated by policies protecting workers. Chapter 2 investigates the effect of foreign shocks on income distribution, economic activity, and inflation in an open economy, thus extending the agent-based model set forth in the preceding chapter to an economy open to international trade of consumption goods. The effects of a foreign demand and a foreign price shock are investigated and simulation results suggest that the type of shock, sign, magnitude, and length are of primary importance for understanding how income distribution is affected. Also, the type of shock matters for the relationship between output growth and income distribution, as well as for the relationship between output growth and the real exchange rate and for the nature of inflation. Finally, chapter 3 investigates what could be done to reduce income inequalities. The experiments are based on the model presented in chapter 2 and explore the effect and interaction of labor market regulations and redistributive policies. The combination of these policy tools is effective to achieve more equality, while also exerting a positive effect on the output dynamics and employment levels. Moreover, the chapter highlights the complex nature of the two-way relationship between these regulations and policies and income distribution, as well as between income distribution and macroeconomic variables such as output growth and inflation. Thus, while a pro-labor scenario is characterized by more equality and higher output growth rates, careful design and evaluation of the effects and interactions between these policy tools are also recommended (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/21762-0 - Income inequality, economic activity and economic policy instruments: a post-Keynesian approach
• Grantee: Lílian Nogueira Rolim
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate