Study of the relationship between international trade, human capital and economic growth in Brazil between 1995 thru 2006

Author(s)

Gilberto Joaquim Fraga

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Piracicaba.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC)
• Defense date: 2011-07-18

Examining board members

Carlos Jose Caetano Bacha; Heloisa Lee Burnquist; Joilson Dias; Alexandre Chibebe Nicolella; Humberto Francisco Silva Spolador

• Advisor: Carlos Jose Caetano Bacha

Abstract

There is a large literature addressing the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth rate and another that addresses the effects of human capital on growth. However, it is very limited literature that emphasizes the interconnection of trade openness and human capital on economic growth. The few studies available in the latter group are focused on analysis considering differences between countries. However, Brazil has large dimensions and analysis of the factors that explain the growth of GDP of its states is of great importance to economic planners. In this backdrop, this thesis seeks to quantify and analyze the impacts of variations in the human capital of individuals and the trade openness of the Brazilian states on rate of economic growth of the respective states. Human capital is understood here as the average number of years of schooling of the portion of the PEA employed in each state and trade openness is defined as the ratio between the amounts of international trade (exports plus imports) to GDP of the respective states. The analysis covers the period from 1995 thru 2006 and annual data are organized in the format of a panel for the group of 26 states plus the Federal District. The thesis is guided by the hypothesis that both trade openness and the level of human capital of the economically active population employed are relevant to the economic growth of the Brazilian states, either by technology transfer via international trade and the efficiency of human capital to assimilate new technologies. To achieve our objective, we developed two theoretical models for further application: extended Solow model of economic growth and economic growth model with endogenous technological progress. The results by dynamic panel data indicate that both the extended Solow model as the model with endogenous technological progress have revealed that increasing in the degree of trade openness positively affects the growth rate of GDP per capita with lag. However, the short-term effect is not instantaneous, because the impact has a lag of two years. It was estimated that an increase in the level of trade openness of 1%, on average, increases the rate of growth of GDP per capita around of 0,13 percentage points when estimated the extended Solow model and 0,09 percentage points when estimated the model with endogenous technological progress. The impact of human capital, we see that for every increase of 1 year in the average level of schooling of the workforce will increase by 0,06 percentage points in growth rate of GDP per capita when estimated through the extended Solow model and 0,07 percentage points through the endogenous model. From these results, this research suggests that it is necessary not only increase the degree of trade openness, but it is also important to implement complementary policies of continued investment in workforce skills. (AU)