PREDPOL: A forecast model of sugarcane maturation seeking optimized planning

Author(s)

Maximiliano Salles Scarpari

• Document type: Doctoral Thesis
• Press: Piracicaba.
• Institution: Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALA/BC)
• Defense date: 2007-04-25

Examining board members

Edgar Gomes Ferreira de Beauclair; Marcos Silveira Bernardes; Ailto Antonio Casagrande; Jairo Antonio Mazza; Raffaella Rossetto

• Advisor: Edgar Gomes Ferreira de Beauclair

Abstract

Sugarcane grows under different weather and handling conditions that directly affect crop maturation. These conditions cause the requirement of quantifying the responses of the culture to the different stimuli for planning purposes. Forecast models for the quality of raw material are important tools in the sugarcane farming, in especial the forecast curve of sucrose accumulation in the stems. These models aim to supply yield estimates along the culture cycle, seeking the characterization of handling alternatives and increasing the efficacy of management and strategic decisions. The objectives of this work were to develop empiric models capable to obtain estimates of TRS - Total Recoverable Sugar in the varieties RB 72 454, RB 85 5156, RB 85 5536, SP 81-3250 and SP 80-1842 along the crop cycle, by using referring data to the production factors, generating a tool that helps the outlet decision and the strategic planning; to measure the space-temporary variation of LAI - leaf area index and TRS of the varieties RB 85 5156 and SP 80-3280 along a cycle for calibration of the model, simulating the others; confirm and relate the influence of available soil water storage, seasonal decreasing of air temperature (negative degreedays) and amount of carbohydrates assimilated in the maturation of sugarcane, besides optimizing the agricultural planning using the Operational Research. The Costa Pinto/COSAN sugar-mill (Piracicaba – SP) database was analyzed considering the maturation, age of the culture, soils, varieties, flowering, ripeners and handling for the years crops 1998/1999, 1999/2000, 2000/2001, 2001/2002 and 2002/2003, utilizing statistical test models of maturation estimate and agricultural planning optimized in the crop 2003/2004. All the forecast models for ratoon were significant as an excellent tool for help the optimized agricultural planning. The planning of optimized cutting promoted a homogeneous distribution of raw material for industry along the months of crop, obtaining the maximum possible profit with the considered resources. (AU)