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| Author(s): |
Camila Costa Magalhães
Total Authors: 1
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| Document type: | Master's Dissertation |
| Press: | São Paulo. |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade (FEA/SBD) |
| Defense date: | 2007-11-21 |
| Examining board members: |
Marcio Issao Nakane;
Eurilton Alves Araujo Junior;
Carlos Eduardo Soares Gonçalves
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| Advisor: | Marcio Issao Nakane |
| Abstract | |
The conduction of monetary policy is being described by recent literature through a forward-looking Taylor rule. In this context, what literature identifies as the Taylor Principle indicates that, for an efficient policy of inflation control, the coefficient of the response of nominal interest rates from the deviation of the inflation expectations in relation to the target should be more than one. If this deviation is positive, it will cause an increase in real interest rates. However, the derivation of the rule shows that this principle can be questioned, and the coefficient must be more than ( ) t rr + 1 , one plus the real interest rate. In this work we estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil, country with high real interest rates, trying to compare the coefficient value to ( ) t rr + 1 . The method consists in a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), where the parameters follow a random walk process. Varied data combinations are used. The results show a very aggressive policy by the Central Bank in all periods of analysis. (AU) | |