Sugarcane model intercomparison: Structural differences and uncertainties under current and potential future climates

Author(s)

Marin, Fabio R. ^[1] ; Thorburn, Peter J. ^[2] ; Nassif, Daniel S. P. ^[1] ; Costa, Leandro G. ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Luiz de Queiroz Coll Agr ESALQ, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP - Brazil

^[2] CSIRO, Agr Flagship, Brisbane, Qld 4001 - Australia

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE; v. 72, p. 372-386, OCT 2015.
• Web of Science Citations: 22

Abstract

Sugarcane is one of the world's main carbohydrates sources. We analysed the APSIM-Sugar (AS) and DSSAT/CANEGRO (DC) models to determine their structural differences, and how these differences affect their predictions of crop growth and production. The AS model under predicted yield at the hotter sites, because the algorithm for computing the degree-days is based in only one upper cardinal temperature. The models did not accurately predict canopy and stalk development through time using growth parameters values developed from observed data, in combination with previously determined RUE for the cultivars. In response to elevated CO2, both predicted higher yields, although AS showed higher sensitivity to CO2 concentration, rainfall and temperature than DC. The Mean of simulations from both models produced better estimations than predictions from either model individually. Thus, applying the two models (in their current form) is likely to give the more accurate predictions than focusing on one model alone. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 13/16511-4 - Influence of crop residues on water consumption, growth and yield of irrigated sugarcane
• Grantee: Leandro Garcia da Costa
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 11/18072-2 - Evapotranspiration, transpiration and gas exchange in irrigated sugarcane field
• Grantee: Daniel Silveira Pinto Nassif
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate