Worldwide Alien Invasion: A Methodological Approach to Forecast the Potential Spread of a Highly Invasive Pollinator

Author(s)

Acosta, Andre L. ^{[1, 2]} ; Giannini, Tereza C. ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L. ^{[1, 2, 3]} ; Saraiva, Antonio M. ^{[2, 4]}

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Biosci Inst, Dept Ecol, Rua Matao, Travessa 14, 321, BR-05508090 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

^[2] Res Ctr Biodivers & Comp BioComp, Ave Prof Luciano Gualberto, Travessa 3, 158, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo Capital, SP - Brazil

^[3] Vale Inst Technol Sustainable Dev, Rua Boaventura da Silva 955, BR-66055090 Belem, Para - Brazil

^[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Comp & Digital Syst Engn, Polytech Sch, Ave Prof Luciano Gualberto 380, BR-05508970 Sao Paulo, SP - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PLoS One; v. 11, n. 2 FEB 16 2016.
• Web of Science Citations: 14

Abstract

The ecological impacts of alien species invasion are a major threat to global biodiversity. The increasing number of invasion events by alien species and the high cost and difficulty of eradicating invasive species once established require the development of new methods and tools for predicting the most susceptible areas to invasion. Invasive pollinators pose serious threats to biodiversity and human activity due to their close relationship with many plants (including crop species) and high potential competitiveness for resources with native pollinators. Although at an early stage of expansion, the bumblebee species Bombus terrestris is becoming a representative case of pollinator invasion at a global scale, particularly given its high velocity of invasive spread and the increasing number of reports of its impacts on native bees and crops in many countries. We present here a methodological framework of habitat suitability modeling that integrates new approaches for detecting habitats that are susceptible to Bombus terrestris invasion at a global scale. Our approach did not include reported invaded locations in the modeling procedure; instead, those locations were used exclusively to evaluate the accuracy of the models in predicting suitability over regions already invaded. Moreover, a new and more intuitive approach was developed to select the models and evaluate different algorithms based on their performance and predictive convergence. Finally, we present a comprehensive global map of susceptibility to Bombus terrestris invasion that highlights priority areas for monitoring. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 11/12779-7 - Bombus terrestris will reach Brazil? A predictive study about a potential invasion.
• Grantee: André Luis Acosta
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate