Potential worldwide impacts of sea level rise on coastal-lowland anurans

Author(s)

de Oliveira, Igor Soares ^{[1, 2]} ; Roedder, Dennis ^[3] ; Toledo, Luis Felipe ^[1]

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, LaHNAB, Dept Biol Anim, Inst Biol, Rua Monteiro Lobato 255, BR-13083862 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[2] Univ Estadual Campinas, Programa Posgrad Ecol, Inst Biol, Ave Bertrand Russel S-N, Cidade Univ Zeferino Vaz, BR-13083865 Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Zool Forsch Museum Alexander Koenig, Herpetol Sect, Adenauerallee 160, D-53113 Bonn - Germany

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: North-Western Journal of Zoology; v. 12, n. 1, p. 91-101, JUN 2016.
• Web of Science Citations: 4

Abstract

Amphibians are the most severely threatened terrestrial vertebrates and we are witnessing a global decline phenomenon, which is even suggested to be of the same level as the historical mass extinctions. Albeit the myriad of causative stressors identified in the last decades, future sea level rise (SLR) and its impact on coastal terrestrial fauna remains essentially unreported. Even if there is no consensus on the magnitude of the future SLR, several studies suggest that it is likely to be greater than previously reported by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Therefore, it is reasonable to expect severe impacts on the coastal terrestrial fauna at a worldwide scale. Here, we assembled a worldwide data set of coastal-lowland anuran species in an attempt to quantify the potential habitat loss caused by flooding according to different SLR scenarios. We also assessed potential habitat suitability under climate change (CC) in order to evaluate its expected effects on species' climatic niches, by building species distribution models for three future scenarios (A2a, A1b and B2a). Our results revealed that SLR has the potential to produce negative impacts on similar to 86% of the selected coastal-lowland species in different magnitudes, whereas CC is expected to produce a greater impact on the same taxa. Thus, species predicted to persist under the new climatic conditions may be exposed to effects associated with SLR. Breaking our results down to biogeographic realms, we found that Australasia harboured most amphibian species suffering the dual impacts of SLR and CC. Based on our results, we advocate for the inclusion of potential future impacts of SLR in conservation action plans, anticipating and preventing biodiversity loss. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 11/51694-7 - Into the heart of an epidemic: a US-Brazil collaboration for integrative studies of the amphibian-killing fungus in Brazil
• Grantee: Luis Felipe de Toledo Ramos Pereira
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants