Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Parana, southern Brazil

Author(s)

Ferro e Silva, Andreia Mantovani ^[1] ; Sobral-Souza, Thadeu ^[2] ; Vancine, Mauricio Humberto ^[2] ; Muylaert, Renata Lara ^[2] ; de Abreu, Ana Paula ^[1] ; Pelloso, Sandra Marisa ^{[1, 3]} ; de Barros Carvalho, Maria Dalva ^{[1, 4]} ; de Andrade, Luciano ^{[1, 4]} ; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar ^[2] ; de Ornelas Toledo, Max Jean ^{[1, 5]}

Affiliation

^[1] Univ Estadual Maringa, Postgrad Program Hlth Sci, Hlth Sci Ctr, Maringa, Parana - Brazil

^[2] Sao Paulo State Univ, Spatial Ecol & Conservat Lab LEEC, Dept Ecol, Inst Biosci, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Univ Estadual Maringa, Dept Nursing, Hlth Sci Ctr, Maringa, Parana - Brazil

^[4] Univ Estadual Maringa, Dept Med, Hlth Sci Ctr, Maringa, Parana - Brazil

^[5] Univ Estadual Maringa, Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Basic Hlth Sci, Maringa, Parana - Brazil

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases; v. 12, n. 10 OCT 2018.
• Web of Science Citations: 2

Abstract

After obtaining certification of the absence of transmission of the Trypanosoma cruzi by Triatoma infestans in 2006, other native species of protozoan vectors have been found in human dwellings within municipalities of the State of Parana, Southern Brazil. However, the spatial distribution of T. cruzi vectors and how climatic and landscape combined variables explain the distribution are still poorly understood. The goal of this study was to predict the potential distribution of T. cruzi vectors as a proxy for Chagas disease transmission risk using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on climatic and landscape variables. We hypothesize that ENM based on both climate and landscape variables are more powerful than climate-only or landscape-only models, and that this will be true independent of vector species. A total of 2,662 records of triatomines of five species were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance from 2007 to 2013. The species with the highest number of specimens was Panstrongylus megistus (73%; n = 1,943), followed by Panstrongylus geniculatus (15.4%; 411), Rhodnius neglectus (6.0%; 159), Triatoma sordida (4.5%; 119) and Rhodnius prolixus (1.1%; 30). Of the total, 71.9% were captured at the intradomicile. T. cruzi infection was observed in 19.7% of the 2,472 examined insects. ENMs were generated based on selected climate and landscape variables with 1 km(2) spatial resolution. Zonal statistics were used for classifying the municipalities as to the risk of occurrence of synanthropic triatomines. The integrated analysis of the climate and landscape suitability on triatomines geographical distribution was powerful on generating good predictive models. Moreover, this showed that some municipalities in the northwest, north and northeast of the Parana state have a higher risk of T. cruzivector transmission. This occurs because those regions present high climatic and landscape suitability values for occurrence of their vectors. The frequent invasion of houses by infected triatomines clearly indicates a greater risk of transmission of T. cruzi to the inhabitants. More public health attention should be given in the northern areas of the State of Parana, which presents high climate and landscape suitabilities for the disease vectors. In conclusion, our results through spatial analysis and predictive maps showed to be effective in identifying areas of potential distribution and, consequently, in the definition of strategic areas and actions to prevent new cases of Chagas' disease, reinforcing the need for continuous and robust surveillance in these areas. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 15/17739-4 - Landscape effects and the interaction between mammals and hantavirus in the Atlantic Forest
• Grantee: Renata de Lara Muylaert
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 17/09676-8 - Effect of landscape modifications and climate changes on the persistence of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest
• Grantee: Maurício Humberto Vancine
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Master
• FAPESP's process: 17/21816-0 - Spatiotemporal dynamics of hantavirus disease in a fast-changing country
• Grantee: Renata de Lara Muylaert
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate