Predictability study of heavy rainfall events in the Serra do Mar
Forecasting of severe storms at very short notice in the state of São Paulo
Maintenance and Monitoring of the ChuvaOnline Computer System
| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Total Authors: 2
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| Affiliation: | [1] Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos - Brasil
[2] Universidade de São Paulo - Brasil
Total Affiliations: 2
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| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia; v. 28, n. 2, p. 199-209, 2013-06-00. |
| Abstract | |
The evaluation of the rainfall nowcasting within the surveillance area of São Paulo weather radar for different types of precipitating systems, mainly those associated to floods and landslides in Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, was carried out with a 2D wind advective scheme and rainfall rates estimated by radar. The third-order upstream numerical scheme was used with an uniform wind vector. The rainfall forecast skill for a given time interval was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detention and False Alarm Rate statistic parameters. Quantitatively, the accuracy of the forecast was evaluated with the mean-square error. The correlation coefficient showed better skill for stratified precipitations than for convective precipitations. The average skills based on critical Success Index for the thresholds of 0.2 mm at 60 minutes of accumulated precipitation are: Cold fronts (77%), Squall lines (67,5%), Dispersed Bands (58%), Isolated Convection (56,4%) and Maritime Breeze (47%). In general, from 90 minutes of advection (convective systems) to 120 minutes (stratiform systems), the forecast skill decreases. (AU) | |