| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Total Authors: 4
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| Affiliation: | [1] Univ Fed Sao Carlos, Stat Dept, Sao Carlos, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 1
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| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | Journal of the Operational Research Society; v. 70, n. 5, p. 770-782, MAY 4 2019. |
| Web of Science Citations: | 0 |
| Abstract | |
We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of 1710 matches of the first division of the Brazilian football championship and the comparison used three proper scoring rules, the proportion of errors and a calibration assessment. We also provide a goodness of fit measure. Our results show that multinomial-Dirichlet models are not only competitive with standard approaches, but they are also well calibrated and present reasonable goodness of fit. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 14/25302-2 - A flexible approach to high-dimensional conditional density estimation |
| Grantee: | Rafael Izbicki |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 17/03363-8 - Interpretability and efficiency in hypothesis tests |
| Grantee: | Rafael Izbicki |
| Support Opportunities: | Regular Research Grants |