| Full text | |
| Author(s): |
Wu, Huanyu
[1]
;
Zou, Yong
[1]
;
Alves, Lincoln M.
[2]
;
Macau, Elbert E. N.
[3, 2]
;
Sampaio, Gilvan
[4]
;
Marengo, Jose A.
[5]
Total Authors: 6
|
| Affiliation: | [1] East China Normal Univ, Sch Phys & Elect Sci, Shanghai 200062 - Peoples R China
[2] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, BR-12246021 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[3] Univ Fed Sao Paulo, BR-12247014 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
[4] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP - Brazil
[5] Brazilian Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat, CEMADEN, BR-12245320 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP - Brazil
Total Affiliations: 5
|
| Document type: | Journal article |
| Source: | Chaos; v. 30, n. 5 MAY 2020. |
| Web of Science Citations: | 0 |
| Abstract | |
Since 2012, the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) has been experiencing a continuous dry condition imposing significant social impacts and economic losses. Characterizing the recent extreme drought events and uncovering the influence from the surrounding oceans remain to be big challenges. The physical mechanisms of extreme drought events in the NEB are due to varying interacting time scales from the surrounding tropical oceans (Pacific and Atlantic). From time series observations, we propose a three-step strategy to establish the episodic coupling directions on intraseasonal time scales from the ocean to the precipitation patterns in the NEB, focusing on the distinctive roles of the oceans during the recent extreme drought events of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016. Our algorithm involves the following: (i) computing drought period length from daily precipitation anomalies to capture extreme drought events; (ii) characterizing the episodic coupling delays from the surrounding oceans to the precipitation by applying the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) of complexity measure, which is based on ordinal partition transition network representation of time series; and (iii) calculating the ratio of high temperature in the ocean during the extreme drought events with proper time lags that are identified by KLD measures. From the viewpoint of climatology, our analysis provides data-based evidence of showing significant influence from the North Atlantic in 2012-2013 to the NEB, but in 2015-2016, the Pacific played a dominant role than that of the Atlantic. The episodic intraseasonal time scale properties are potential for monitoring and forecasting droughts in the NEB in order to propose strategies for drought impacts reduction. (AU) | |
| FAPESP's process: | 11/50151-0 - Dynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications |
| Grantee: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |
| FAPESP's process: | 15/50122-0 - Dynamic phenomena in complex networks: basics and applications |
| Grantee: | Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau |
| Support Opportunities: | Research Projects - Thematic Grants |