Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Author(s):Show less -

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^[1] ; Hill, Verity ^[2] ; Ruis, Christopher ^[3] ; Dellicour, Simon ^{[4, 5]} ; Bajaj, Sumali ^[1] ; McCrone, John T. ^[2] ; Baele, Guy ^[5] ; Parag, Kris V. ^[6] ; Battle, Anya Lindstrom ^[7] ; Gutierrez, Bernardo ^[1] ; Jackson, Ben ^[2] ; Colquhoun, Rachel ^[2] ; O'Toole, Aine ^[2] ; Klein, Brennan ^[8] ; Vespignani, Alessandro ^[8] ; Volz, Erik ^[6] ; Faria, Nuno R. ^{[1, 9, 6]} ; Aanensen, David M. ^{[10, 11]} ; Loman, Nicholas J. ^[12] ; du Plessis, Louis ^[1] ; Cauchemez, Simon ^[13] ; Rambaut, Andrew ^[2] ; Scarpino, Samuel V. ^{[14, 8, 15]} ; Pybus, Oliver G. ^{[1, 16]} ; Consor, COVID-19 Genomics UK COG-UK

Affiliation:Show less -

^[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford - England

^[2] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh, Midlothian - Scotland

^[3] Univ Cambridge, Dept Med, Mol Immun Unit, Cambridge - England

^[4] Univ Libre Bruxelles, Spatial Epidemiol Lab SpELL, Brussels - Belgium

^[5] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Rega Inst, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Transplantat, B-3000 Leuven - Belgium

^[6] Imperial Coll London, Jameel Inst Dis & Emergency Analyt, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London - England

^[7] Univ Oxford, Dept Plant Sci, Oxford - England

^[8] Northeastern Univ, Network Sci Inst, Boston, MA 02115 - USA

^[9] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med, Inst Med Trop, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[10] Ctr Genom Pathogen Surveillance, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton - England

^[11] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Li Ka Shing Ctr Hlth Informat & Discovery, Big Data Inst, Oxford - England

^[12] Univ Birmingham, Inst Microbiol & Infect, Birmingham, W Midlands - England

^[13] CNRS, Inst Pasteur, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, UMR2000, Paris - France

^[14] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 - USA

^[15] Univ Vermont, Vermont Complex Syst Ctr, Burlington, VT 05405 - USA

^[16] Royal Vet Coll London, Dept Pathobiol & Populat Sci, London - England

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Science; v. 373, n. 6557, p. 889+, AUG 20 2021.
• Web of Science Citations: 0

Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/14389-0 - Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology (CADDE)
• Grantee: Ester Cerdeira Sabino
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants