Climate change impacts on heat stress in Brazil-Past, present, and future implications for occupational heat exposure

Author(s)

Bitencourt, Daniel Pires ^[1] ; Muniz Alves, Lincoln ^[2] ; Shibuya, Elisa Kayo ^[3] ; de Angelo da Cunha, Irlon ^[3] ; Estevam de Souza, Joao Paulo ^{[2, 4]}

Affiliation

^[1] Jorge Duprat Figueiredo Fdn Occupat Safety & Med, South Reg Ctr, R Silva Jardim 213, BR-88020200 Florianopolis, SC - Brazil

^[2] Natl Inst Space Res INPE, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[3] Jorge Duprat Figueiredo Fdn Occupat Safety & Med, Natl Technol Ctr, Sao Paulo - Brazil

^[4] Univ Glasgow, Adam Smith Business Sch, Glasgow, Lanark - Scotland

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY; OCT 2020.
• Web of Science Citations: 2

Abstract

Climate change has caused an increased occurrence of heat waves. As a result of rising temperatures, implications for health and the environment have been more frequently reported. Outdoor labour activities deserve special attention, as is the case with agricultural and construction workers exposed to extreme weather conditions, including intense heat. This paper presents an overview of heat stress conditions in Brazil from 1961 to 2010. It also presents computer-simulated projections of heat stress conditions up to the late 21st century. The proposed climate analysis drew on historical weather data obtained from national weather stations and on reanalysis data, in addition to future projections with the ETA (regarding the model's unique vertical coordinate) regional forecast model. The projections took into consideration two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)-the 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, namely, moderate and high emissions scenarios, respectively. Heat stress was inferred based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index. The results of this climate analysis show that Brazilian outdoor workers have been exposed to an increasing level of heat stress. These results suggest that future changes in the regional climate may increase the probability of heat stress situations in the next decades, with expectations of WBGT values greater than those observed in the baseline period (1961-1990). In terms of spatial distribution, the Brazilian western and northern regions experienced more critical heat stress conditions with higher WBGT values. As a response to the increased frequency trends of hot periods in tropical areas, urgent measures should be taken to review public policies in Brazil. Such policies should include actions towards better working conditions, technological development to improve outdoor labour activities, and employment legislation reviews to mitigate heat impacts on occupational health. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 15/50122-0 - Dynamic phenomena in complex networks: basics and applications
• Grantee: Elbert Einstein Nehrer Macau
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants