Scale-free dynamics of COVID-19 in a Brazilian city

Author(s):Show less -

Policarpo, J. M. P. ; Ramos, A. A. G. F. ; Dye, C. ; Faria, N. R. ; Leal, F. E. ; Moraes, O. J. S. ; Parag, K. V. ; Peixoto, P. S. ; Buss, L. ; Sabino, E. C. ; Nascimento, V. H. ; Deppman, A.

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: Applied Mathematical Modelling; v. 121, p. 19-pg., 2023-05-03.

Abstract

A common basis to address the dynamics of directly transmitted infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, are compartmental (or SIR) models. SIR models typically assume homoge-nous population mixing, a simplification that is convenient but unrealistic. Here we vali-date an existing model of a scale-free fractal infection process using high-resolution data on COVID-19 spread in Sao Caetano, Brazil. We find that transmission can be described by a network in which each infectious individual has a small number of susceptible con-tacts, of the order of 2-5. This model parameter correlated tightly with physical distancing measured by mobile phone data, such that in periods of greater distancing the model re-covered a lower average number of contacts, and vice versa. We show that the SIR model is a special case of our scale-free fractal process model in which the parameter that re-flects population structure is set at unity, indicating homogeneous mixing. Our more gen-eral framework better explained the dynamics of COVID-19 in Sao Caetano, used fewer parameters than a standard SIR model and accounted for geographically localized clusters of disease. Our model requires further validation in other locations and with other directly transmitted infectious agents.(c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Inc. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 18/14389-0 - Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics and Epidemiology (CADDE)
• Grantee: Ester Cerdeira Sabino
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 16/17612-7 - Dynamics of many-body systems IV
• Grantee: Arnaldo Gammal
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 16/18445-7 - Numerical methods for the next generation weather and climate models
• Grantee: Pedro da Silva Peixoto
• Support Opportunities: Research Grants - Young Investigators Grants