Drought and its Economical Impacts on the Brazilian Interconnected Power System

Author(s)

Zambon, Renato C. ; Barros, Mario T. L. ; Lopes, Joao E. G. ; Francato, Alberto L. ; Barbosa, Paulo S. F. ; Yeh, William W-G. ; Karvazy, K ; Webster, VL

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2015: Floods, Droughts, and Ecosystems; v. N/A, p. 10-pg., 2015-01-01.

Abstract

The Brazilian hydrothermal system consists of a completely linked network of 152 medium and large hydropower plants, 985 small hydropower plants, as well as 1,867 thermal and 178 wind power plants, with a total installed capacity of 139,012 MW. During the ten-year period from July 2002 to June 2012, on average 91% of Brazilian effective electric generation was provided by hydropower plants. To compensate for the shortage in energy supply, thermal generation was dispatched. During the ten years considered, both the energy demands and installed capacity increased by about 50%, and the marginal cost of thermal dispatch was kept under 40 US$/MWh most of the time. However, during the two most recent years (July 2012 to June 2014), all major watersheds in Brazil suffered from a severe drought. As a result, hydropower production was reduced and reservoir storages were drawn down. The published data show that only 78% of demand was supplied by hydropower, necessitating intense thermal dispatch. This drove the marginal cost of thermal dispatch to over 350 US$/MWh. Different optimizations models such as NEWAVE, HIDROTERM and SolverSIN are being used or developed to assist in decision making for the planning and operation of the country's inter-connected power system. Some questions have been raised about the ability of the power system to recover from its current state, considering energy prices, risk of shortage and effect of demand management. To answer these questions, particularly in the event of a prolonged drought in the future, we use the SolverSIN model to perform a sensitivity analysis. Different hydrological scenarios are used to carry out the analysis. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 08/58508-1 - HydroRisk: risk management technologies applied to water and electricity supply systems
• Grantee: Paulo Sérgio Franco Barbosa
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants
• FAPESP's process: 13/03432-9 - Stochastic optimization with individualized hydropower plants for planning operation of Brazilian hydrothermal system
• Grantee: Renato Carlos Zambon
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research