Zika, chikungunya and co-occurrence in Brazil: space-time clusters and associated environmental-socioeconomic factors

Author(s)

Gardini Sanches Palasio, Raquel ; Marques Moralejo Bermudi, Patricia ; Luiz de Lima Macedo, Fernando ; Reis Santana, Lidia Maria ; Chiaravalloti-Neto, Francisco

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS; v. 13, n. 1, p. 14-pg., 2023-10-21.

Abstract

Chikungunya and Zika have been neglected as emerging diseases. This study aimed to analyze the space-time patterns of their occurrence and co-occurrence and their associated environmental and socioeconomic factors. Univariate (individually) and multivariate (co-occurrence) scans were analyzed for 608,388 and 162,992 cases of chikungunya and Zika, respectively. These occurred more frequently in the summer and autumn. The clusters with the highest risk were initially located in the northeast, dispersed to the central-west and coastal areas of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (2018-2021), and then increased in the northeast (2019-2021). Chikungunya and Zika demonstrated decreasing trends of 13% and 40%, respectively, whereas clusters showed an increasing trend of 85% and 57%, respectively. Clusters with a high co-occurrence risk have been identified in some regions of Brazil. High temperatures are associated with areas at a greater risk of these diseases. Chikungunya was associated with low precipitation levels, more urbanized environments, and places with greater social inequalities, whereas Zika was associated with high precipitation levels and low sewage network coverage. In conclusion, to optimize the surveillance and control of chikungunya and Zika, this study's results revealed high-risk areas with increasing trends and priority months and the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 21/10212-1 - "Spatial-temporal modeling of Zika and chikungunya in Brazil considering three different geographic scales and climate change"
• Grantee: Raquel Gardini Sanches Palasio
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctoral
• FAPESP's process: 20/12371-7 - Spatio-temporal patterns of Dengue cases and deaths, associated factors and identification of risk areas at two geographical scales: municipalities in Brazil and intra-urban areas of Campinas, State of São Paulo
• Grantee: Patricia Marques Moralejo Bermudi
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 21/11721-7 - Analysing the spatio-temporal pattern of dengue cases and deaths at different geographic scales, considering climate change and under greenhouse gas emission scenarios
• Grantee: Patricia Marques Moralejo Bermudi
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships abroad - Research Internship - Doctorate
• FAPESP's process: 20/01596-8 - Use of remote sensing and artificial intelligence to predict high risk areas for Aedes aegypti and Arbovirus infestation
• Grantee: Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants