"Spatial-temporal modeling of Zika and chikungunya in Brazil considering three different geographic scales and climate change"

• Grant number: 21/10212-1
• Support Opportunities: Scholarships in Brazil - Post-Doctorate
• Effective date (Start): January 01, 2022
• Effective date (End): December 31, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Health Sciences - Collective Health - Epidemiology
• Principal Investigator: Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto
• Grantee: Raquel Gardini Sanches Palasio
• Host Institution: Faculdade de Saúde Pública (FSP). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Chikungunya and Zika are arboviruses considered neglected tropical diseases and emerging diseases. They are caused by virus transmitted in the Americas by the bite of mosquitoes of the species Aedes aegypti. They are diseases subject to climate change, as variations in temperature and precipitation can affect the survival, reproduction and distribution of virus and their vector. The objective of this study is to investigate, model and predict the space-time patterns of occurrence of zika, chikungunya considering three different geographical scales (municipalities in Brazil, weighting areas in the state of São Paulo and census tracts in the municipalities of Campinas and Baixada Santista) and climate change. It also aims to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the simultaneous occurrence of zika, chikungunya and dengue in the municipalities of Baixada Santista and Campinas. Potential distribution modeling will be performed using the maximum entropy algorithm, and spatial distribution, using Bayesian and Scan statistics. Reported cases of these diseases will be considered between 2015 and 2022, georeferenced according to the respective geographic scales, information on environmental variables, as well as demographic, socioeconomic and health care variables. For future predictions, the regional climate model HadGEM2-ES of the period 2041-2060 will be used, considering two possible climate change scenarios: SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 126 (smaller increase in greenhouse gas emissions) and 585 (larger increase). Maps of the present and future spatial distribution will be generated for zika and chikungunya occurrences in Brazil, São Paulo, Baixada Santista and Campinas. With the results of this study, we can predict, both in the present and in the future, as well as in the three geographical scales considered, the areas at risk for the occurrence of these diseases. With this, we will contribute to selecting priority areas for the implementation of entomological, epidemiological and control surveillance activities, aiming to avoid or minimize its occurrence.