Bayesian Inference for Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models

Author(s)

Chaim, Pedro ; Laurini, Marcio Poletti

• Document type: Journal article
• Source: ECONOMETRICS; v. 12, n. 4, p. 28-pg., 2024-12-01.

Abstract

We explore the application of integrated nested Laplace approximations for the Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models characterized by long memory. The logarithmic variance persistence in these models is represented by a Fractional Gaussian Noise process, which we approximate as a linear combination of independent first-order autoregressive processes, lending itself to a Gaussian Markov Random Field representation. Our results from Monte Carlo experiments indicate that this approach exhibits small sample properties akin to those of Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimators. Additionally, it offers the advantages of reduced computational complexity and the mitigation of posterior convergence issues. We employ this methodology to estimate volatility dependency patterns for both the SP&500 index and major cryptocurrencies. We thoroughly assess the in-sample fit and extend our analysis to the construction of out-of-sample forecasts. Furthermore, we propose multi-factor extensions and apply this method to estimate volatility measurements from high-frequency data, underscoring its exceptional computational efficiency. Our simulation results demonstrate that the INLA methodology achieves comparable accuracy to traditional MCMC methods for estimating latent parameters and volatilities in LMSV models. The proposed model extensions show strong in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast performance, highlighting the versatility of the INLA approach. This method is particularly advantageous in high-frequency contexts, where the computational demands of traditional posterior simulations are often prohibitive. (AU)

• FAPESP's process: 23/02538-0 - Time series, wavelets, high dimensional data and applications
• Grantee: Aluísio de Souza Pinheiro
• Support Opportunities: Research Projects - Thematic Grants