Prediction and inference in complex systems

• Grant number: 19/23293-0
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: September 01, 2020
• End date: August 31, 2022
• Field of knowledge: Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Physics - General Physics
• Principal Investigator: Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
• Grantee: Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues
• Host Institution: Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação (ICMC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: São Carlos

Abstract

Complex systems are made of discrete parts that interact in a non-linear way. The Internet, social networks and ecosystems are examples of complex systems. A big challenge in this area is the prediction of the dynamical processes, such as epidemic spreading and synchronization of coupled oscillators, from the network structure. In the present project, we aim to perform the prediction and inference of dynamical processes in networks. We will consider methods of Bayesian inference to determine which network properties most influence dynamical processes simulated on the network structure. Machine learning approaches will be adopted to perform the prediction of dynamical processes, including epidemic spreading and synchronization. Applications, such as medicine, epidemiology and link prediction, will also be studied in this project. The goals proposed here will open a new field that considers machine learning and statistics to model and predict complex systems. (AU)

Scientific publications

(15)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; MORENO, YAMIR; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Role of time scale in the spreading of asymmetrically interacting diseases. PHYSICAL REVIEW RESEARCH, v. 3, n. 1, FEB 12 2021. (16/24555-0, 13/07375-0, 19/11183-5, 19/23293-0)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 156, p. 10-pg., 2022-03-01. (19/11183-5, 16/24555-0, 19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

DE ARRUDA, GUILHERME FERRAZ; JEUB, LUCAS G. S.; MATA, ANGELICA S.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. From subcritical behavior to a correlation-induced transition in rumor models. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 10-pg., 2022-06-01. (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)

MARTINEZ-MARTINEZ, C. T.; MENDEZ-BERMUDEZ, J. A.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; ESTRADA, ERNESTO. Nonuniform random graphs on the plane: A scaling study. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 105, n. 3, p. 13-pg., 2022-03-15. (19/23293-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. EEG functional connectivity and deep learning for automatic diagnosis of brain disorders: Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. JOURNAL OF PHYSICS-COMPLEXITY, v. 3, n. 2, p. 13-pg., 2022-06-01. (19/23293-0, 19/26595-7, 19/22277-0)

LOTFI, NASTARAN; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. On the effect of memory on the Prisoner?s Dilemma game in correlated networks. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, v. 607, p. 7-pg., 2022-12-01. (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0, 20/08359-1)

ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; DE MORAES, KAUE L.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. isk-dependent centrality in the Brazilian stock marke. JOURNAL OF COMPLEX NETWORKS, v. 10, n. 1, DEC 20 2021. (19/23293-0)

ALVES, LUIZ G. A.; MANGIONI, GIUSEPPE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; PANZARASA, PIETRO; MORENO, YAMIR. The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 12, n. 1, p. 14-pg., 2022-05-31. (19/23293-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; CURY, RUBENS GISBERT; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; CIBA, MANUEL. Application of machine learning and complex network measures to an EEG dataset from ayahuasca experiments. PLoS One, v. 17, n. 12, p. 26-pg., 2022-12-16. (19/22277-0, 19/23293-0, 19/26595-7)

SILVA, JOSE CARLOS M.; SILVA, DIOGO H.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; FERREIRA, SILVIO C.. Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 106, n. 3, p. 9-pg., 2022-09-22. (21/00369-0, 13/07375-0, 19/23293-0)

ALVES, CAROLINE L.; TOUTAIN, THAISE G. L. DE O.; AGUIAR, PATRICIA DE CARVALHO; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; PORTO, JOEL AUGUSTO MOURA; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder based on functional brain networks and machine learning. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 20-pg., 2023-05-18. (19/26595-7, 19/23293-0, 19/22277-0)

ALEXANDRE, M.; XAVIER, F.; SILVA, T.; RODRIGUES, F.. The determinants of the individual nestedness contribution in financial systems. EPL, v. 141, n. 4, p. 8-pg., 2023-02-01. (19/23293-0)

ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; SILVA, THIAGO CHRISTIANO; CONNAUGHTON, COLM; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 153, n. 1, DEC 2021. (19/23293-0)

VENTURA, PAULO C.; TOKUDA, ERIC K.; COSTA, LUCIANO DA F.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 167, p. 8-pg., 2023-01-07. (19/01077-3, 19/23293-0, 15/22308-2, 16/24555-0)

VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO APARECIDO; MORENO, YAMIR. Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases. EPIDEMICS, v. 38, p. 13-pg., 2022-02-28. (19/11183-5, 19/23293-0, 16/24555-0)