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Prediction and inference in complex systems


Complex systems are made of discrete parts that interact in a non-linear way. The Internet, social networks and ecosystems are examples of complex systems. A big challenge in this area is the prediction of the dynamical processes, such as epidemic spreading and synchronization of coupled oscillators, from the network structure. In the present project, we aim to perform the prediction and inference of dynamical processes in networks. We will consider methods of Bayesian inference to determine which network properties most influence dynamical processes simulated on the network structure. Machine learning approaches will be adopted to perform the prediction of dynamical processes, including epidemic spreading and synchronization. Applications, such as medicine, epidemiology and link prediction, will also be studied in this project. The goals proposed here will open a new field that considers machine learning and statistics to model and predict complex systems. (AU)

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Scientific publications (15)
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. Epidemic spreading in populations of mobile agents with adaptive behavioral response. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 156, p. 10-pg., . (19/11183-5, 16/24555-0, 19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)
ALVES, CAROLINE L.; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. EEG functional connectivity and deep learning for automatic diagnosis of brain disorders: Alzheimer's disease and schizophrenia. JOURNAL OF PHYSICS-COMPLEXITY, v. 3, n. 2, p. 13-pg., . (19/23293-0, 19/26595-7, 19/22277-0)
VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; MORENO, YAMIR; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Role of time scale in the spreading of asymmetrically interacting diseases. PHYSICAL REVIEW RESEARCH, v. 3, n. 1, . (16/24555-0, 13/07375-0, 19/11183-5, 19/23293-0)
DE ARRUDA, GUILHERME FERRAZ; JEUB, LUCAS G. S.; MATA, ANGELICA S.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; MORENO, YAMIR. From subcritical behavior to a correlation-induced transition in rumor models. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 10-pg., . (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0)
MARTINEZ-MARTINEZ, C. T.; MENDEZ-BERMUDEZ, J. A.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; ESTRADA, ERNESTO. Nonuniform random graphs on the plane: A scaling study. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 105, n. 3, p. 13-pg., . (19/23293-0)
ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; DE MORAES, KAUE L.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. isk-dependent centrality in the Brazilian stock marke. JOURNAL OF COMPLEX NETWORKS, v. 10, n. 1, . (19/23293-0)
LOTFI, NASTARAN; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. On the effect of memory on the Prisoner?s Dilemma game in correlated networks. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, v. 607, p. 7-pg., . (19/23293-0, 13/07375-0, 20/08359-1)
ALVES, LUIZ G. A.; MANGIONI, GIUSEPPE; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; PANZARASA, PIETRO; MORENO, YAMIR. The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 12, n. 1, p. 14-pg., . (19/23293-0)
ALEXANDRE, MICHEL; SILVA, THIAGO CHRISTIANO; CONNAUGHTON, COLM; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. The drivers of systemic risk in financial networks: a data-driven machine learning analysis. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 153, n. 1, . (19/23293-0)
VENTURA, PAULO CESAR; ALETA, ALBERTO; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO APARECIDO; MORENO, YAMIR. Modeling the effects of social distancing on the large-scale spreading of diseases. EPIDEMICS, v. 38, p. 13-pg., . (19/11183-5, 19/23293-0, 16/24555-0)
ALVES, CAROLINE L.; CURY, RUBENS GISBERT; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; CIBA, MANUEL. Application of machine learning and complex network measures to an EEG dataset from ayahuasca experiments. PLoS One, v. 17, n. 12, p. 26-pg., . (19/22277-0, 19/23293-0, 19/26595-7)
ALVES, CAROLINE L.; TOUTAIN, THAISE G. L. DE O.; AGUIAR, PATRICIA DE CARVALHO; PINEDA, ARUANE M.; ROSTER, KIRSTIN; THIELEMANN, CHRISTIANE; PORTO, JOEL AUGUSTO MOURA; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. Diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder based on functional brain networks and machine learning. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v. 13, n. 1, p. 20-pg., . (19/26595-7, 19/23293-0, 19/22277-0)
ALEXANDRE, M.; XAVIER, F.; SILVA, T.; RODRIGUES, F.. The determinants of the individual nestedness contribution in financial systems. EPL, v. 141, n. 4, p. 8-pg., . (19/23293-0)
SILVA, JOSE CARLOS M.; SILVA, DIOGO H.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.; FERREIRA, SILVIO C.. Comparison of theoretical approaches for epidemic processes with waning immunity in complex networks. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, v. 106, n. 3, p. 9-pg., . (21/00369-0, 13/07375-0, 19/23293-0)
VENTURA, PAULO C.; TOKUDA, ERIC K.; COSTA, LUCIANO DA F.; RODRIGUES, FRANCISCO A.. A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape. CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, v. 167, p. 8-pg., . (19/01077-3, 19/23293-0, 15/22308-2, 16/24555-0)

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