ADVACING DATABASES AND MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR YIELD-GAP ANALYSIS IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

• Grant number: 21/00720-0
• Support Opportunities: Regular Research Grants
• Start date: June 01, 2021
• End date: November 30, 2023
• Field of knowledge: Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
• Principal Investigator: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Grantee: Fabio Ricardo Marin
• Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil
• City of the host institution: Piracicaba
• Associated researchers: Bruno Carneiro e Pedreira ; Carlos Guilherme Silveira Pedreira ; Fernando Campos Mendonca ; Ivo Zution Gonçalves ; Quirijn de Jong van Lier

Abstract

Global population will increase by 30% up to 2050. At the same time, consumption of livestock and dairy products will increase as a result of higher income per capita, and this will lead to a 50-70% increase in food demand. Brazil has a comparative advantage to help meet global food demand due to plentiful land and water resources. However, the rate of increase in average farmer yields has been slow and average yields have remained well below highest yields reported by progressive farmers and those measured in research stations, notably for animal producing systems. Yield gap (defined as the yield of an adapted crop cultivar when grown without water and nutrient limitations and kept free of diseases, weeds and insect pests) analysis provides a robust quantitative framework to quantify the gap and identify their causes and suggest the required interventions to close them. The overall objective of the proposal is to use a new approach to quantify the yield gap of sugarcane and soybean crops based on on-farm data e new modeling techniques to estimate potential and water-limited yield. Still, the proposal intends to advance in the collection of basic data and modeling for tropical pastures, thus analyzing the three main sectors in term of land use in Brazil. Such project will require collaboration among scientists from different institutions to achieve full geographic coverage and have the range of expertise needed to achieve the proposed goals. (AU)

Scientific publications

(20)

(The scientific publications listed on this page originate from the Web of Science or SciELO databases. Their authors have cited FAPESP grant or fellowship project numbers awarded to Principal Investigators or Fellowship Recipients, whether or not they are among the authors. This information is collected automatically and retrieved directly from those bibliometric databases.)

FATTORI JUNIOR, IZAEL MARTINS; VIANNA, MURILO DOS SANTOS; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. Assimilating leaf area index data into a sugarcane process-based crop model for estimation. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY, v. 136, p. 13-pg., 2022-05-01. (14/05887-6, 21/00720-0)

GASPAROTTO, LETICIA G.; ROSA, JULIANO M.; GRASSINI, PATRICIO; MARIN, FABIO R.. Developing an operational framework to diagnose yield gaps in commercial sugarcane mills. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH, v. 278, p. 9-pg., 2022-03-15. (17/50445-0, 21/00720-0, 18/06396-7, 17/20925-0)

DA SILVA, EVANDRO HENRIQUE FIGUEIREDO MOURA; VIEIRA JR, NILSON APARECIDO; FATTORI JR, IZAEL MARTINS; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. Exploring avenues for tropical soybean intensification: how much water and nutrients are demanded to achieve exploitable yield?. CIENTIA AGRICOL, v. 81, p. 10-pg., 2024-01-01. (15/25702-3, 17/23468-9, 21/00720-0, 17/50445-0, 17/20925-0, 19/18303-6)

DOS SANTOS, MARIELY LOPES; SANTOS, PATRICIA MENEZES; BARIONI, LUIS GUSTAVO; PEREIRA, BRUNO HENRIQUE; CUADRA, SANTIAGO VIANNA; PEQUENO, DIEGO NOLETO LUZ; MARIN, FABIO RICARO; SOLLENBERGER, LYNN. Yield gap analysis framework applied to pasture-based livestock systems in Central Brazil. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH, v. 314, p. 15-pg., 2024-05-29. (21/00720-0, 17/20925-0)

IVO Z. GONÇALVES; LEANDRO G. DA COSTA; FÁBIO R. MARIN. . Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v. 26, n. 8, p. 586-593, 2022-07-25. (21/00720-0, 13/16511-4, 14/12406-4, 14/19410-7, 20/08365-1, 17/20925-0)

GONCALVES, I. Z.; RUHOFF, A.; LAIPELT, L.; BISPO, R. C.; HERNANDEZ, F. B. T.; NEALE, C. M. U.; TEIXEIRA, A. H. C.; MARIN, F. R.. Remote sensing-based evapotranspiration modeling using geeSEBAL for sugarcane irrigation management in Brazil. Agricultural Water Management, v. 274, p. 12-pg., 2022-10-21. (20/08365-1, 21/00720-0)

GASPAROTTO, LETICIA G.; GONCALVES, IVO Z.; MARIN, FABIO R.. The Brazilian case as a beacon to increase crop production in sub-Saharan Africa. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE, v. N/A, p. 10-pg., 2024-11-05. (20/08365-1, 21/00720-0)

LEITE, EMILY AQUINO; DA SILVA, EVANDRO H. FIGUEIREDO MOURA; FATTORI JUNIOR, IZAEL MARTINS; MARIN, FABIO R.. Assessing climate change impacts on sugarcane yield, crop water productivity, and nitrous oxide emissions across Brazil's bioenergy using the CSM-SAMUCA-sugarcane model. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS, v. 231, p. 10-pg., 2025-09-16. (21/00720-0, 21/10573-4, 22/16715-8, 22/02396-8)

MARIN, FABIO R.; ZANON, ALENCAR J.; MONZON, JUAN P.; ANDRADE, JOSE F.; SILVA, EVANDRO H. F. M.; RICHTER, GEAN L.; ANTOLIN, LUIS A. S.; RIBEIRO, BRUNA S. M. R.; RIBAS, GIOVANA G.; BATTISTI, RAFAEL; et al. Protecting the Amazon forest and reducing global warming via agricultural intensification. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY, v. 5, n. 12, p. 14-pg., 2022-10-10. (17/50445-0, 21/00720-0, 18/06396-7, 17/20925-0)

FATTORI JR, IZAEL M.; MARIN, FABIO R.. Assessing the influence of crop model structure on the performance of data assimilation for sugarcane. COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE, v. 209, p. 11-pg., 2023-04-21. (14/05887-6, 21/00720-0)

DIAS, TAIS SOUZA DOS SANTOS; FATTORI, IZAEL MARTINS; DE MELO, MARINA LUCIANA ABREU; BRUNETTI, HENRIQUE BAUAB; SANDOVAL, LIVIA BETANHO; BONALDI, ISABELLE DE OLIVEIRA; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. Mitigating agricultural risk under future climate: assessing maize cycle and yield in Brazil. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, v. 156, n. 10, p. 16-pg., 2025-09-17. (21/00720-0, 21/10573-4)

BIANCHINI, VITOR DE J. M.; SECHI, ALEX DA S.; MARIN, FABIO R.. Seasonal patterns of CO₂ exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v. 361, p. 15-pg., 2024-11-28. (21/00720-0, 21/04965-7, 22/07758-5)

PEREIRA, RODOLFO ARMANDO DE ALMEIDA; DE MELO, MARINA LUCIANA ABREU; VIANNA, MURILO DOS SANTOS; VAN LIER, QUIRIJN DE JONG; BRUNETTI, HENRIQUE BAUAB; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. Key genotype and soil parameters for sugarcane growth: A sensitivity analysis of the SAMUCA model in Brazilian agroecosystems. FIELD CROPS RESEARCH, v. 322, p. 14-pg., 2025-01-24. (21/00720-0, 24/02381-6, 21/10573-4)

LUÍS ALBERTO SILVA ANTOLIN; EVANDRO HENRIQUE FIGUEIREDO MOURA DA SILVA; ALENCAR JUNIOR ZANON; BRUNA SAN MARTIN ROLIM RIBEIRO; FABIO RICARDO MARIN. How much would irrigation increase maize production in Brazil?. Scientia Agricola, v. 82, 2025-03-17. (21/00720-0)

GONCALVES, IVO Z.; NEALE, CHRISTOPHER M. U.; SUYKER, ANDY; MARIN, FABIO R.. Evapotranspiration adjustment for irrigated maize-soybean rotation systems in Nebraska, USA. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY, v. N/A, p. 11-pg., 2023-09-06. (21/00720-0, 20/08365-1)

GONCALVES, IVO Z.; FATTORI, IZAEL M.; NEALE, CHRISTOPHER M. U.; SANTOS, CARLOS A. C.; RUANE, ALEX; PHILLIPS, MERIDEL M.; MARIN, FABIO R.. How can Future Climate Change Affect the Corn Production System in Nebraska, USA?. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION, v. 18, n. 4, p. 15-pg., 2024-09-20. (14/05887-6, 21/00720-0, 14/12406-4, 17/20925-0, 20/08365-1, 11/18072-2)

LUCA, GUSTAVO DE ANGELO; FATTORI JR, IZAEL MARTINS; MARIN, FABIO R.. Coupling a dynamic epidemiological model into a process-based crop model to simulate climate change effects on soybean target spot disease in Brazil. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY, v. 161, p. 11-pg., 2024-09-17. (23/00305-8, 21/00720-0, 21/10573-4)

PRUDENTE JUNIOR, AMAURI CASSIO; VIANNA, MURILO S.; WILLIANS, KARINA; GALDOS, MARCELO, V; MARIN, FABIO R.. Application of the JULES-crop model and agrometeorological indicators for forecasting off-season maize yield in Brazil. HELIYON, v. 10, n. 8, p. 12-pg., 2024-04-30. (21/00720-0, 17/20925-0)

ANTOLIN, LUIS ALBERTO SILVA; DA SILVA, EVANDRO HENRIQUE FIGUEIREDO MOURA; ZANON JUNIOR, ALENCAR; RIBEIRO, BRUNA SAN MARTIN ROLIM; MARIN, FABIO RICARDO. How much would irrigation increase maize production in Brazil?. CIENTIA AGRICOL, v. 82, p. 13-pg., 2025-01-01. (21/00720-0)

WADT, LUCAS; BRUNETTI, HENRIQUE BAUAB; DA SILVA, EVANDRO H. F. MOURA; DE MELO, MARINA L. A.; MARIN, FABIO R.. Key Factors for Closing the Soybean Yield Gap in Brazil's Leading Producing Region. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION, v. N/A, p. 14-pg., 2025-03-03. (17/20925-0, 21/00720-0, 18/06396-7)