Flash drought event evolution characteristics and the response mechanism to climate change considering the spatial correlation

• Grant number: 22/08468-0
• Support Opportunities: Research Program on Global Climate Change - Regular Grants
• Start date: January 01, 2023
• End date: December 31, 2025
• Field of knowledge: Engineering - Sanitary Engineering - Water Resources
• Agreement: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
• Principal Investigator: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
• Grantee: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
• Principal researcher abroad: Qianjin Dong
• Institution abroad: Wuhan University (WHU), China
• Host Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil
• Associated researchers: Adelaide Cassia Nardocci ; Danielle de Almeida Bressiani ; Denise Taffarello ; Jamil Alexandre Ayach Anache ; Nilo de Oliveira Nascimento ; Susana Oliveira Dias ; Veber Afonso Figueiredo Costa ; Wilson dos Santos Fernandes

Abstract

This cooperative proposal meets the requirements of sub-question 3 ("Future change prediction and risk averaging of extreme climate events. For China and Brazil, develop predicting technologies and methods for different time periods in the future, make refined prediction of future changes and risks of extreme climate events at the regional scale, improve the accuracy of predictions in order to support the adaptation and sustainable development of the region") of the second research Direction of the call for international Cooperative Science programs for Sustainable Development. The Project aims to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of flash drought and its response mechanism to climate change. Mainly taking the Yangtze River and São Francisco basin as the research object, this proposal will study the characteristics of flash drought, discuss the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of flash drought intensity, duration and frequency, explore the new multi-dimensional attribute compound rule of flash drought intensity and duration from the perspective of vector synthesis, and building the threshold value of flash drought and metric function of evolution direction under this rule, thus the temporal and spatial evolution of flash drought based on this rule will be clarified. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of flash drought, a response model of flash drought forced by climate natural variability will be built based on max-stable process, which consider the spatial correlation of different regions. The influence mechanism of spatial correlation of different regions on the spread of flash drought will be discussed, and the response mechanism of flash drought driven by climate natural variability also will be quantitatively analyzed. Based on analyzing characteristics and change rules of different anthropogenic climate changes, the collaborative evolution relationship between anthropogenic climate change and characteristic values of flash drought will be explored, and the response mechanism of spatial correlation flash drought in different regions by anthropogenic climate change will be quantitatively analyzed based on hierarchical Bayesian model. The project will propose a new synthetic rule of flash drought intensity, duration and internal mechanism affected by climate change, providing theoretical and technical support for understanding the occurrence, development and management of flash drought. Also, the multidimensional impacts of flash droughts are addressed to SDGs nexuses among poverty, health, education, sanitation, economy and climate action. Thus, this Chinese-Brazilian research project aims to respond to "science-for-policy" questions around Sustainable Development Goals of: (1) How to quantitatively identify and characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of sudden drought events?, (2) How to quantitatively analyze the response mechanism of sudden drought events to spatial correlation and climate change?, and (3) What adaptation pathways for SDGs are feasible to cope with drought impacts? Also, the Project is organized into four Research Methods: (i) Sudden drought event identification based on vector synthesis method, (ii) Response analysis of sudden drought events to climate natural variability based on Max-stable process, (iii) Response analysis of sudden drought event to anthropogenic climate change based on layered Bayesian model, and (iv) Drought resilience through Community-based Adaptation (CbA), Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and Participative Action Research (PAR). The coupling of climate-drought-adaptation is applied in sub-basins of Yangtze River Basin (China) and São Francisco River Basin (Brazil). Strategies of CbA, EbA, NbS and PAR are studied under of climate change scenarios from a CMIP6 multimodel ensemble of Socioeconomic Shared Pathways (SSP) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). (AU)

Scientific publications

(8)

(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)

RAPALO, LUIS M. C.; GOMES JR, MARCUS N.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.. Developing an open-source flood forecasting system adapted to data-scarce regions: A digital twin coupled with hydrologic-hydrodynamic simulations. Journal of Hydrology, v. 644, p. 15-pg., 2024-09-27. (22/08468-0, 22/07521-5)

SASS, KARINA SIMONE; KONAK, ABDULLAH; DE MACEDO, MARINA BATALINI; BENSO, MARCOS ROBERTO; SHRIMPTON, ELISABETH; BALTA-OZKAN, NAZMIYE; SARMAH, TANAYA; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; SILVA, GREICELENE JESUS DA; DA SILVA, PEDRO GUSTAVO CAMARA; et al. Enhancing drought resilience and vulnerability assessment in small farms: A global expert survey on multidimensional indicators. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION, v. 110, p. 16-pg., 2024-06-29. (22/15054-8, 19/23393-4, 22/08468-0, 22/07521-5)

GOMES JR, MARCUS NOBREGA; TAHA, AHMAD F.; RAPALO, LUIS MIGUEL CASTILLO; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; GIACOMONI, MARCIO HOFHEINZ. Real-time regulation of detention ponds via feedback control: Balancing flood mitigation and water quality. Journal of Hydrology, v. 643, p. 15-pg., 2024-09-05. (22/08468-0, 22/07521-5)

SANTOS, LEONARDO RODRIGUES; BARBOSA, ALAN DE GOIS; LEITE, CALINE CECILIA OLIVEIRA; MARINHO E SILVA, GABRIEL; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; COSTA, VEBER AFONSO FIGUEIREDO. Assessing future changes in hydroclimatic processes in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, with the expanded Bluecat framework. FRONTIERS IN WATER, v. 7, p. 16-pg., 2025-03-18. (22/08468-0)

BEVEN, KEITH; ARCHFIELD, STACEY; BATELAAN, OKKE; CHEN, CHANGCHUN; FENICIA, FABRIZIO; GASCUEL-ODOUX, CHANTAL; MARSHALL, LUCY; MCDONNELL, JEFFREY; MENDIONDO, E. MARIO; PRIETO, CRISTINA; et al. On the value of a history of hydrology and the establishment of a History of Hydrology Working Group. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, v. 70, n. 5, p. 13-pg., 2025-02-24. (22/08468-0, 22/07521-5)

GOMES JR, MARCUS N.; RAPALO, LUIS M. C.; OLIVEIRA, PAULO T. S.; GIACOMONI, MARCIO H.; DO LAGO, CESAR A. F.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO M.. Modeling unsteady and steady 1D hydrodynamics under different hydraulic conceptualizations: Model/Software development and case studies. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, v. 167, p. 19-pg., 2023-06-14. (22/08468-0)

PEREIRA, BRUNO SILVA; UCHOA, JOSE GESCILAM S. M.; FREITAS, GABRIELA SEGUESSE; MEIRA NETO, ANTONIO A.; ANACHE, JAMIL A. A.; WENDLAND, EDSON C.; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; MEDEIROS, PEDRO H. A.. Hydrological heritage: a historical exploration of human-water dynamics in northeast Brazil. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, v. N/A, p. 13-pg., 2025-02-09. (22/07521-5, 20/15434-0, 22/08468-0, 23/13160-8)

DE MACEDO, MARINA BATALINI; BENSO, MARCOS ROBERTO; SASS, KARINA SIMONE; MENDIONDO, EDUARDO MARIO; DA SILVA, GREICELENE JESUS; DA SILVA, PEDRO GUSTAVO CAMARA; SHRIMPTON, ELISABETH; SARMAH, TANAYA; HUO, DA; JACOBSON, MICHAEL; et al. Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, v. 24, n. 6, p. 9-pg., 2024-07-01. (22/15054-8, 19/23393-4, 22/08468-0, 22/07521-5)