Abstract
Clarity has developed a set of predictive models for health risks and costs. The models help to estimate the risk of diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes in populations with acute and chronic diseases, as well as community populations (where there are people with and without diseases at baseline). Predictive health models are useful for predicting future costs and effectively acting on individuals most at risk. Although predictive tools are considered an unmet need by managers, healthcare teams and patients, data collection across the entire healthcare ecosystem value chain is small and unstructured, limiting the use of predictive models. To overcome this limitation, with the support of PIPE Phase 1, we started developing the prototype of a population health management platform that helps the patient to connect with the health team, bringing transparency, agility and efficiency to these relationships. The Clarity:iGESTO platform is a solution to facilitate data collection, analysis and presentation/visualization of health information for managers, health teams and patients. Simultaneously, iGESTO identifies patients with a higher risk of hospitalization and of developing chronic diseases in the medium and long-term. In order for iGESTO to start operating: (i) It is necessary to continue the development of the iGESTO platform, focusing on the development of new functionalities to obtain the minimum viable product (MVP), including design functionalities in the form of user-friendly interaction with the product from the available elements (buttons, typography, icons and colors); (ii) To develop actions to protect information assets (cyber security); (iii) To develop predictive models for long-term hospitalizations, using time series data on blood pressure, weight and blood glucose. In parallel, new regulatory requirements (RDC No. 591 of December 29, 2021) for clinical decision support systems have been placed by the National Health Surveillance Agency (ANVISA); therefore, it is also necessary (iv) To carry out clinical trials in the community to assess the safety and efficacy of the iGESTO platform. (i) Following the AGILE method, we will follow the development of the iGESTO platform; (ii) Using clustering methods and nonlinear time-dependent models with concurrent outcomes, we will develop predictive models for long-term hospitalizations, CKD and stroke using community data; (iii) We propose a randomized clinical trial with cluster allocation to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the iGESTO platform. The expectation is to radically change the relationship between patients and health services, with more empowered patients and more proactive health teams being expected to mitigate health problems. From a scientific perspective, Clarity will continuously generate useful data in public health, epidemiology and artificial intelligence. We also hope to deposit software registration and establish governance strategies around the use of data and analytical results. Impacts on the company's business and the market. From a commercial point of view, iGESTO will be the gateway to capitalizing the company, enabling the evolution of the business model, especially to reinvest in science and public health, seeking to train and retain scientific talents in the country. In 5 years, the company has the potential to earn ~R$70 million/year and dominate up to 5% of the Population Health Management market. (AU)
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